As Antonio Conte lays the groundwork for a long-term impact at Chelsea he will need to continue the flexibility he demonstrated this season. Meanwhile, the club needs a clear-eyed approach to evaluating him against the last two Premier League empire-builders: Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger.
A hallmark of a great manager is that he can adapt to the situation he finds himself in or force the situation to adapt to him. Antonio Conte is the former. He likes to look at what he has and make the tactics work. He does not commit to a tactic and then force the players into it.
Conte’s career shows how he has used several formations with success. Even in his first season at Chelsea he showed this flexibility. He started pre-season with a 4-4-2/4-2-4, one of his favorites. As preseason progressed and new players arrived or left, he shifted towards a 4-1-4-1/4-3-3 formation.
Those lineups worked until one very bad week saw defeats to Liverpool and Arsenal. Conte, rather than sticking with the plan, tore it up and started again with a 3-4-3/3-4-2-1. The club did not look back as the ran away with the title.
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Even during games, when the result was still in the balance, Conte opted to switch formations to try a new angle. Frequently, he shifted to a 4-2-3-1/4-2-4 when Chelsea needed a goal, or a 3-5-2 when defending a lead.
Conte’s flexibility is a positive sign, as managers must always avoid complacency. It would be too easy to stick with the 3-4-3 because of its success in 2016/17. But eventually, the rest of the league will learn how to defeat that formation. When that happens, Conte must be able to tear up the plan and start again as he already has.
To do this, he must ensure that every player in a large squad is happy and ready to play at a moment’s notice. This is a difficult proposition when only 11 players out of the full 25 ever see the pitch.
Conte must rotate his squad in cup competitions. This will keep some players fresh, others match fit, and will give an opportunity to try new tactics in a competitive environment.
The addition of Champion’s League will make this task easier, but the job must start as soon as the previous season ends. He must select his transfer targets, assess the youth, analyze his tactics and rotate his players.
Keeping a large squad happy and successful over four competitions is a herculean task that goes on year-round. Antonio Conte must be three steps ahead of the current reality at all times.
Understanding difficult times: Another Ferguson, or another Wenger?
Perhaps the most important factor in creating a Conte Empire is recognizing the difference between an Alex Ferguson and an Arsene Wenger. Both managers spent decades at their respective clubs. Both found success and both had dips. But their successes and dips varied greatly.
Chelsea must continuously evaluate if Conte’s empire is closer to Ferguson’s at United or Wenger’s at Arsenal. Ferguson was not always a success, and had several years where he and Manchester United struggled. But the club stood by him and he rewarded them with unprecedented success.
Ferguson used the academy and shrewd transfers to create a dangerous side that could compete on all fronts. He also stayed ahead of tactical trends. He always had a core philosophy, but changed its implementation along with trends in the game.
Wenger is almost the opposite. He had several years where he succeeded, but several more where he did not. The club stood by him because it was safe and because they always felt like success was just around the corner.
He tapped the academy, but with mixed success. Transfers were rarely super stars, and there were more failures than victories in the market. Wenger stuck with the same tactics as the game moved on around him and left him in the rear view. He has attempted to catch up, but ultimately it may be too little, too late.
During down times, Manchester United and Arsenal stuck by their managers with mixed results. History has only shown Chelsea pulling the plug during these moments. But now that Roman Abramovich appears fully settled and willing to exercise patience it must be done properly.
The owner must be sure in these dark moments that Conte is a Ferguson. If he is, and success is right around the corner, then Conte must be kept on and trusted. But if failure is prolonged and he appears to be a Wenger, Abramovich must pull the plug.
Chelsea must not have a fan base that is calling for their manager’s head every season. Nor can they give their manager so much control that removing him is more difficult than keeping him.
So far, the signs point towards Conte being more like Sir Alex Ferguson than Arsene Wenger. The club must evaluate that situation regularly to ensure it remains the case. If they do so, along with the other things necessary to build an empire, Conte’s tenure at Stamford Bridge could rival Ferguson’s at Manchester United.
Next: Building the Antonio Conte empire, part 2 of 3: Loan and academy pipelines
If Chelsea maintain the ambition, patience, and evaluation, then Conte’s time at Chelsea could be long and prosperous. It will be an empire, long talked about and long envied. Just as it should be.