Chelsea have played nine matches since the last international break and the shape of the table has changed greatly. One week into the second half of the season, it is a good time to look around the Premier League and bust narratives while also making predictions.
A good rule of thumb is to look at all the teams within 15 points of a team’s current position after matchday 19. Those positions are the range that a team can finish in. That is not to say that a team cannot beat that range, but it would take something miraculous for a team to do so. In fact, it would take a massive effort to just get to the teams within 10 points.
But this helps to give a rough estimate of the best dreams and worst nightmares of the Premier League clubs before Christmas.
1. Manchester City: 55 points, 18-1-0, No Change, Possible Finish: 1st-2nd
Only Manchester United having a hot run and City sputtering could change the current trajectory of the title. City has been historically deadly as they have dispatched all but Ronald Koeman’s Everton.
They have won or ground out results as needed and there is no sign of that stopping soon. It will surely happen eventually, but the results they are getting are a testament to the players adapting Pep Guardiola’s style and Guardiola making small adjustments to cope with life in the Premier League.
2. Manchester United: 43 Points, 13-4-3, No Change, Possible Finish: 1st-7th
The only hope of keeping the title from Manchester City belongs to their cross-town rivals. But while City can stay in second gear and take three points, United have struggled with their best in recent weeks as they have repeatedly limped over the line. They simply cannot afford to lose to City again this season, but they also must keep a blistering pace to close the gap. Jose Mourinho has the players and the checkbook to make it possible, but there is next to no room for error.
3. Chelsea: 42 Points, 13-3-4, +1 place, Possible Finish: 2nd-9th
It is time to give up on defending the title. Chelsea has been in good form for weeks but Manchester United has equaled it and Manchester City has surpassed it. The rough start to the season with the more recent blips has left Chelsea with a solid hold on top four, but with virtually no chance of retaining the title.
The club has not traditionally spent big in January but they need depth as the focus should shift to the cups and maintaining a top four spot.
4. Liverpool: 35 Points, 9-8-2, +1 place, Possible Finish: 2nd-12th
Just as the defensive issues seemed to be fixed, Jurgen Klopp created new issues by rotating his squad heavily for big games. From afar, it makes sense. Injuries ravaged the squad at about this time last year, and Klopp’s rotations may pay off down the line.
But right now it is causing the club to spin its wheels. For every great goal they score they seem to concede. They cannot break the cycle. Reinforcements in January could make them dangerous, but it may be too late to change their fortunes this year.
5. Tottenham Hotspur: 37 Points, 11-4-5, – 2 places, Possible Finish: 2nd-14th
Spurs are not putting the pressure on at all this season and seem to have focused their efforts on the Champions League and possibly the FA Cup. That switch in focus offers its own risks but the biggest is their stuttering Premier League form. They are keeping pace with rivals Arsenal but are not pulling ahead in the battle for top four. Harry Kane and other starters will not stay forever without trophies, so the club will be desperate for anything in the new year.
6. Arsenal: 34 Points, 10-4-5, -1 places, Possible Finish: 2nd-14th
This season’s Arsenal is mixing their traditional bad half and good half of each season into one. They will look great one week and awful the next, with no consistency to speak of. Normally, the fans would be on the #WengerOut bandwagon by now, but the sense is that he is untouchable after surviving not making Champions League.
Winning the Europa League is possible and may represent the best chance for next season’s Champions League, but few Arsenal fans will be happy with the current state of affairs.
7. Burnley: 33 Points, 9-6-5, No Change, Possible Finish: 2nd-17th
Burnley continue to defy gravity as they stay towards the top of the table despite almost every stat saying they should be closer to the relegation battle. And yet Sean Dyche has them persevering and snapping at the heels of the traditional top six. He did not let the Everton rumors stop what he was doing in the present and kept the club clicking along. If they can sustain this pace they could end up in Europe next season despite the odds.
8. Leicester City: 27 Points, 7-6-7, +4 places, Possible Finish: 2nd-20th
Leicester was deeply worried about relegation when Craig Shakespeare was sacked. Claude Puel was eventually hired to heavy criticism after his Southampton stint last year. Since then, Puel has turned Leicester into his personal revenge project. The Foxes are playing with a confidence that they have not had since their title winning season (and the Champions League that followed). They feel like genuine giant killers. Any team in the league should be afraid of a match against them.
9. Everton: 27 Points, 7-6-7, +6 places, Possible Finish: 3rd-20th
Everton did circles around managers for weeks before changing their mind and hiring Sam Allardyce like they should have done in the first place. The move was as inspired as expected.
Allardyce took Everton back to basics. He made a disorganized squad of individuals into a team capable of competing once more. They have risen up the table faster than any team, and may just take their island at seventh back by season’s end.
10. Watford: 25 Points, 7-4-9, -1 place, Possible Finish: 4th-20th
Marco Silva is a good manager who nearly saved Hull City and then spun that into a job at Watford. He also nearly turned a strong start with Watford into a job at Everton. Since then the wheels have gone off a bit and the worry signs are going to start appearing.
Quique Flores had a similar season and was sacked. Add in Silva flirting with Everton and his time at Watford may not extend beyond the end of the season.
11. Huddersfield Town: 23 Points, 6-5-9, -1 place, Possible Finish: 4th-20th
Huddersfield is in virtually the same position as Brighton. Few expected them to have much chance of staying up, yet both had strong starts to the season which are still sustaining them through their recent down period. Both clubs will just be happy to be in the Premier League, closer to the middle than the bottom. They will have to improve if they are to stay up, but they will also be happier to be where they are than many Premier League staples.
12. Brighton & Hove Albion: 21 Points, 5-6-9, -4 places, Possible Finish: 4th-20th
Many watchers expected Brighton to struggle this season, which is why their strong early season was so impressive. The recent slide, which is one of the league’s worst drops, is really more about reverting to form than anything else.
They may have done enough in the first half to stay up but they will need to start gathering points again soon to do so. The last 19 matches will be a slog for them but the signs are positive for them staying in the Premier League.
13. Southampton: 19 Points, 4-7-9, No Change, Possible Finish: 5th-20th
Southampton still struggle mightily to score. The results have not been there, but the one that stung the most was the 4-1 loss to Leicester City. Southampton fired Claude Puel for managing a team that struggled to score. Turns out that was just Southampton.
Puel fought off all the criticism after his appointment at Leicester to get his revenge. Southampton sit with Stoke in the middle of the table where nothing really matters and everyone forgets they are in the league.
14. Stoke City: 20 Points, 5-5-10, No Change, Possible Finish: 5th-20th
At the time of writing, Mark Hughes still has a job after winning what was touted as a must-not-lose-or-you-will-be-sacked type of game. He may not stay around much longer as their defense, something that should be stereotypically Stoke, has been somewhere between leaky and absolutely porous.
They are missing an edge and are treading water despite everything else, and Hughes is currently on a short leash. He needs to turn things around before the team gets dragged into the scrap at the bottom.
15. Newcastle United: 18 Points, 5-3-11, -4 places, Possible Finish: 7th-20th
Things have not just gone wrong for Newcastle. They have gone catastrophically wrong. If anyone besides Rafael Benitez (who stayed with them through relegation and easily got them promoted) was manager he would have been sacked. There is also the prospect of a takeover looming, which keeps Benitez safer than he normally would be. But a new owner will be vastly less interested if they go down. And the old owner will not reinforce before selling, so they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
16. Crystal Palace: 18 Points, 4-6-9, +4 places, Possible Finish: 7th-20th
The most impressive thing about Crystal Palace right now is they have not lost since playing Tottenham on November 5. For a team that lost virtually every match before then, it is a massive turn around in fortunes.
The bottom of the table is getting heavy, which has metered their rise a bit. But it is still quite an achievement to go from rock bottom to 16th. Commentators were already preparing for Palace to drop, and now with Roy Hodgson and a new system they are towards the top of the bottom.
17. West Ham United: 18 Points, 4-6-10, +1 place, Possible Finish: 7th-20th
A huge win over Chelsea aside, there really has not been much to write home about for West Ham. David Moyes has made them appear more organized, but the results are still hard to come by. A solid transfer window could just about save them but questions will still linger about what style the squad is built for and how exactly Moyes’ is going to flip his personal narrative.
Keeping them up will be a slog. They need results and reinforcements to have a shot.
18. Bournemouth: 17 Points, 4-5-11, -1 place, Possible Finish: 8th-20th
Bournemouth has not had a Premier League win since November 18 when they smashed Huddersfield. Since then it has all gone up as they have been smashed by various opponents.
Eddie Howe is adamant they stick to the style that saw them rise up the divisions, but at some point pragmatism will have to kick in if they are to survive another relegation scrap. Howe is probably still the safest manager in the league for his history at the club, but at some point that goodwill may turn into a parting of ways.
19. West Brom: 15 Points, 2-9-9, -3 places, Possible Finish: 8th-20th
Tony Pulis did what he could but failed to turn the tide. Despite having never been sacked, the football was poor and the fans had turned so there was really no other option for the Baggies.
Enter Alan Pardew as he finally returned to the league after an unusually long absence. And things still are pretty bad. Pardew has not freed them up as expected and they continue to tumble. The club has the resources to strengthen in January and will need to do so to keep an edge in the relegation battle.
20. Swansea: 13 Points, 3-4-12, -1 place, Possible Finish: 8th-20th
Paul Clement’s demise was dragged out for seven matches before he finally got the boot just before matchday 19. The sacking had been coming for a while, especially as relegation rivals almost universally saw success after switching managers.
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They have had no offense to speak of and could not overcome conceding at the other end. It is hard to tell who can fix a squad that regularly sells their best players. The drop may become inevitable in short order.