Chelsea is probably going to look for a new keeper this summer if possible. How do the targets stack up against the current crop of Blue keepers?
It is no secret that Chelsea need to improve between the sticks. Kepa Arrizabalaga is more of a sunk cost now than anything and Willy Caballero, though great in the FA Cup, is a bit too beyond the pale when it comes to keepers Chelsea should trust. The Blues have been linked to several targets, but how do they stand up to the current men between the sticks?
For the purposes of this, the main data that will be looked at will be save percentage, post shot xG per shot on target, passing completion percentage for passes greater than 40 yards, and crosses stopped. That should give a good indication of the keeper in possession and in set piece and open play scenarios. Unless otherwise stated, the stats are for the player’s respective domestic league this season.
1. The base line of Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero
Looking at Arrizabalaga’s Chelsea career as a whole does him more favors than looking at this season in a vacuum. In his two seasons he has a save percentage of 64.7 percent, which makes his current numbers of 56.5 in the Premier League and 50 percent in the Champions League more damning. He is “good” for about 0.34 post shot xG per shot between the two big competitions. Arrizabalaga was also supposed to be good at playing the ball long, but a 42.2 percent completion rate says otherwise. And his ability to claim crosses is already known to be poor, but 7.4 percent poor may surprise some.
It should be noted up front that Caballero has a very small sample size. Overall he has about 62.7 percent save percentage on average between all competitions, but that has very wildly between each one. There is not post shot xG for the domestic cups, but in the Premier League he sits close to Arrizabalaga at 0.36 and in the Champions League it is all the way up at 0.5 (thank Bayern for that one). His passing completion tops out at just under 40 percent and he has yet to stop a single cross this season.
Overall, it is clear Chelsea needs an improvement. Arrizabalaga’s numbers are not great compared to most keepers, nor are Caballeros. The latter, at least, can claim his small sample size and call it good enough for a backup keeper. If either keeper stays next season, that is surely the spot they should remain in.
2. Ugurcan Cakır
Cakir was briefly linked in Turkish media but other than that it seems like a pretty nothing rumor. Even still, it is somewhat understandable why his name was floated. 77.3 percent save percentage is pretty solid, even if it is undone by his Europa League numbers being just 44.4 percent. Unfortunately, the remainder of the stats only exist in Europa League. 0.4 post shot xG, 43.4 percent pass completion, and claiming 9.5 percent of crosses are not much to write home about.
Cakir may be a decent target for a lot of Premier League clubs, but he is surely not the one who will take Chelsea to the next level.
3. Gianluigi Donnarumma
No, Donnarumma has not been linked but one need only go on to any forum or Twitter to see his name thrown out at some point. He is a very well known young keeper and, for the most part, he has gotten past his young mistakes to make him an appealing target to clubs like Chelsea.
His save percentage sits at a whopping 70.7 percent in Serie A. Post shot xG is down to 0.29. Pass completion is at 45.7 percent while he is claiming up to 10.3 percent of crosses into the box.
Pound for pound, he would easily be an improvement in every single category. Unfortunately, AC Milan is well aware of the asset they are sitting on and they are well aware his value will only go up. Donnarumma would have been a good target back before Arrizabalaga came in (indeed, Real Madrid considered him against Thibaut Courtois), but now it would be a very hard move to pull off. Keep him on the back burner, but do not expect to see him in Chelsea Blue or any other colors besides red and black stripes any time soon.
4. Dean Henderson is surely going to be Manchester United’s starter next season
Dean Henderson has been on loan at Sheffield United from Manchester United for two seasons now. In that time, David De Gea’s star has only faded more and more and it appears that the Englishman has a very strong and real chance of replacing him next season. Chelsea is linked, but it would require the player instigating the move and United not completely jacking up the price because it is Chelsea.
It is easy to understand why they would. Henderson’s made 76.6 percent of his saves to a post shot xG of 0.31. His passing percentage of 29.4 percent is not great but so much of that is affected by style of play. He is also only claiming 7.7 percent of crosses into the box, probably because Sheffield’s defenders are owning them all before he can get to it.
Saves alone would make him an improvement on Arrizabalaga, but he is not so far ahead in any other category that Chelsea must start negotiating with Manchester United. He is surely going to give De Gea a run for his money next season, but that does not mean Chelsea should pull the trigger on a transfer.
5. With Jan Oblak, all things are possible
Jan Oblak being one of the best keepers in the world, if not the best, should come as no surprise to many. Chelsea allegedly wanted him back when they got Arrizabalaga but the player was not interested. Two years on, the Blues seem willing to try once again to entice the keeper to wear blue.
Oblak, quite simply, saves goals. The only time his save percentage has ever fallen below 60 percent in a competition was last year’s Champions League. Over the entire course of his career it sits at a whopping 78.4 percent. And while it helps that Atletico Madrid is historically one of the most defensive sides, a post shot xG of 0.22 in La Liga is phenomenal. Meanwhile, he is completing about 40 percent of his passes over distance. Strangely, he does not claim many crosses with his percentage just above five.
For the most part, Oblak seems the surest thing of any of the keepers linked. But at the same time, it may be hard to separate his stats from Atletico Madrid’s style over time. He can obviously do it in that set up, but can he do it just as well with the team a little more open ahead of him? He has never been given a reason to be tested in that way so it is an open question.
6. Andre Onana to add to the Ajax raid
Listen, if the Andre Onana is really as cheap as advertised, then there is no reason not to make him the primary target despite everything else. Again, the stats back that up.
Onana’s save percentage of 72.5 in the domestic league is good, but so what it is just the Netherlands, right? Well, take a gander at his Champions League save percentage going up to 76 percent last season and 85.7 percent this season. The kid improves in the harder competition. His post shot xG sits at the standard 0.32 mark and his passes over distance are only 34.9 percent in the Champions League. He is quite the cross claimer though, at least in Champions League, with a whopping 14 percent claimed.
Onana, both for his price tag and current stats, should be Chelsea’s number one keeper target. While Oblak may be the surest bet, long term (both age wise and monetarily) Onana sits above. He is already very good. Time will make him even better.
7. Bonus scouting pick: Predrag Rajkovic
Who? Well looking through these numbers, one name kept coming up time and time again within the top 20 (and often the top 10) of all these stats. That would be Reims’ 24 year old Serbian keeper Predrag Rajkovic.
Rajkovic joined Reims only this season but he has already shown improvement with the jump to a top five European league. 79.8 percent save percentage followed by a post shot xG 0.27 does not make a whole lot of sense until one looks at that equating to about eight goals he has stopped by himself. His pass completion of 36.3 percent is not great but then again it probably never was going to be given the side he is in. It is crosses where he really owns, however, as he has gone up for 10.1 percent of them.
If every other target fails, Rajkovic could be a cheap option to give Arrizabalaga competition next season. He is not perfect, but there is surely enough there to work with.
Which keeper would you like to see join Chelsea or do you prefer to stick it out with Arrizabalaga? Let us know in the comments and on Twitter!