Chelsea has advanced to the quarterfinals of the Champions League for the first time since Jose Mourinho was the manager with their win over Atletico. Of course, the years in between have either seen Chelsea A: outright not qualify for the Champions League or B: get drawn against one of the best teams in the competition in the round of 16. Either way, the Blues have got past the hurdle and, whisper it very quietly, look like they could keep going.
Restrictions on which team can be drawn against which have been lifted, meaning all seven teams other than Chelsea are up for grabs. They range in quality and Chelsea, in this form, shouldn’t be afraid, but what are the pros and cons of each matchup (in no particular order)?
1. Manchester City
Pros: Easily the biggest pro for drawing Manchester City is the familiarity. Chelsea knows Pep Guardiola’s City side well by now and Thomas Tuchel will be well familiar after their brief battles in Germany. The Blues simply do not look like conceding anytime soon and that is the type of style that can give City fits some days.
Perhaps even more importantly is how often City choke around this stage of Champions League. Guardiola was very much brought into their club to win the Champions League and he has failed to do so thus far. Largely, this has been a result of him tinkering too much at this stage of the competition to try to stay ahead of his opponent and seeing his experiments backfire.
Cons: City, like nearly every other year, goes into the latter stages of the competition as a favorite if not the favorite. Guardiola escaped early season troubles to pull far ahead in the Premier League, meaning he can throw most of his attention towards the Champions League.
And on that same note, this feels like a bit of a now or never moment for City’s current squad and Champions League in a lot of ways. It already feels like some have stayed longer than they have wanted to and that is in the pursuit of the big eared trophy. They will go all out for it and that is a dangerous prospect for whichever team draws them.
2. Liverpool
Pros: Since their run at Anfield ended, Liverpool has collapsed. They went from looking like runaway Premier League winners (again) to wondering if they will qualify for Europe without winning the Champions League. It simply seems like all of the fatigue, physically and mentally, of the last few seasons has finally been cashed in.
Speaking of fatigue, Liverpool’s back line is a patch work of out of position players covering for their numerous injuries. Further up the pitch, their once bombastic attack has struggled to find the back of the net most of the season. If ever there was a time to be okay with drawing Liverpool in the Champions League, it would be now.
Cons: All that being said, it is worth mentioning that the next round is after the break and the tiredness and injury factors may be minimized. More so, if any manager could be trusted to rally his men for a random cup run against the odds, it would probably be Jurgen Klopp. His cuddly German stepdad persona may be wearing thin but it still works.
And despite their quite terrible form in the Premier League, Liverpool quite comfortably got past RB Leipzig in the round of 16. Leipzig hasn’t been the same without Timo Werner but they are still one of Europe’s best teams and they gave Liverpool no problems at all. If that is any indication as to how Liverpool might approach the Champions League, it should be a concern for whoever they draw.
Not to mention Liverpool has fallen so far behind in Premier League that winning Champions League is virtually their only chance of being in the competition, or perhaps even Europe, next year. Liverpool may not be able to defend their Premier League crown, but they will certainly make a full steam ahead run for the Champions League in its place.
3. Bayern Munich
Pros: Truth be told there really aren’t many pros to drawing Bayern Munich. If there was a “nightmare scenario” for Chelsea (or honestly, any team remaining) it’d be Bayern.
About the closest one can get to a pro is that this Bayern team isn’t the same as the Bayern team of last season, which is like saying the best team in the world one year is maybe not quite the best team in the world the next. It’s a small difference that probably doesn’t matter.
If Chelsea does draw Bayern, the best that can be hoped for is Thomas Tuchel and Chelsea both have chips on their shoulders to get one over the Bavarians. Tuchel has often been talked about for the Bayern job but was passed over nearly every time, not to mention his Dortmund connections. At the same time, Chelsea got beat like a drum by the German side either side of the Covid break last year. If that fuels the Blues’ fire enough to get through to the semifinals, so be it.
Cons: Bayern is probably still the best team in the world right now, especially since they have settled down in the Bundesliga this year and other teams in form have fallen off. The regularly go behind in matches seemingly just to prove they can come back by blasting the opponent away.
They have, top to bottom, the most well built squad in the world and who the manager is rarely matters. Hans-Dieter Flick could leave for Germany at the end of the season, Bayern could hire a u8s coach, and they’d probably still be a force to be reckoned with. Make no mistake, Bayern is the worst case scenario.
4. Borussia Dortmund
Pros: Dortmund has not had a good season by any stretch of the imagination. They can count themselves lucky that they are in a league as crazy as the Bundesliga that, despite their poor ability, still sees them in a European spot.
Dortmund currently has an interim manager who has had pretty much no “new manager bounce” to speak of. Dortmund is as they were and that would be a concern for the German side. Perhaps the closest Premier League equivalent would be Everton who, despite having a lot of good players, never quite puts it all together in a threatening way. Dortmund may not be the weakest team left in the competition, but they are certainly the second weakest.
Cons: Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus, Thorgan Hazard, and (sometimes) Giovanni Reyna. Dortmund may be an out of form side but they have a ton of great and amazing depth on attack that they rely on to get them through games. Chief among those is Haaland who may be Europe’s most in form striker right now. Chelsea’s defense has been amazing under Thomas Tuchel thus far but that would be put to the test by almost any combination of Dortmund’s attack.
It’s also hard to dismiss the sheer grit Dortmund can show. Even with their form being poor they never truly give up. It obviously helps when you know you can get Haaland the ball and watch him score a crazy goal but even without him Dortmund had a certain get back up mentality. Dortmund has the potential to be a real trap game for whoever draws them.
5. Porto
Pros: Porto is the minnow of the competition that everyone will want to draw next round. No offense to them but they simply aren’t on par with the remaining teams even with their victory over Juventus.
Chelsea won’t want to underestimate any opponent but if it comes to Porto, they will surely be considering some rotation in the match to stay fresher for the Premier League. There just isn’t much to fear about them.
Cons: That being said, if Dortmund has the potential to be a trap game, Porto screams trap game. They already caught Juventus off guard, faded power that they may be. They defend soundly and catch their opponent on the break, both of which could be easily exploited against this Chelsea side that struggles to create goals and plays an extremely high line.
Two legs means the best team is likely to advance regardless, but if Porto could make it a slog in the first leg, they can make it an upset in the second no matter who they draw.
6. Real Madrid
Pros: Zinedine Zidane is a great manager for Real Madrid but he’s failed to recapture the magic of his first stint. His teams lack a real identity or outlet compared to others in Europe and that has seen them struggle throughout Zidane’s second stint. They aren’t far behind in La Liga on paper, but in practice they have little to no chance of closing the gap there. Even against Atalanta who they more or less beat soundly, they failed to impress.
There is also, of course, the constant drama of the club that probably weighs them down more than it lifts them up. If Barcelona’s woes weren’t so much more entertaining right now, there would be plenty of talk on Zidane’s future, the numerous transfer flops, and their lack of any one player to get anywhere close to the mantle Cristiano Ronaldo left vacant. Real Madrid is a wounded animal there for the taking.
Cons: Almost all of those pros were true in at least two of Zidane’s Champions League wins. Dortmund may have grit to keep going in matches but Real Madrid perfected the art. They could be down 2-0 on away goals after the first leg and win the second 3-0. They simply cannot be counted out no matter how poor they have been relative to their own standards.
Any tie against Real Madrid is sure to come with some pot stirring too. There are the former Chelsea players at the Spanish club but don’t be surprised if several rumors started to break in the buildup about other Chelsea players making the jump. True or not, they will be there to unsettle players and it’s at least something to consider as Real Madrid tries to win the battle off the pitch before stepping on to it.
7. Paris Saint-Germain
Pros: Chelsea’s going to draw PSG simply because there is too much narrative to avoid it. Therefore, the best thing the Blues can do is to use that to their advantage.
The biggest one will be the chip on Thomas Tuchel’s shoulder. He was sacked not even four months ago and replaced by Mauricio Pochettino. It should also be noted that Chelsea’s top choice to replace Frank Lampard was Pochettino as well, who they waited too long for. That gives Tuchel two chips on his shoulder for this one: one against PSG for sacking him and one for being a back up option to the manger in the opposite dugout.
One of the biggest pros is Pochettino has failed to get PSG firing in any way relatively comparable to Tuchel’s Chelsea. Usually at this point in the season, PSG are runaway winners of Ligue 1 but they are still fighting for it currently. That could split their attention enough for a well motivated Chelsea team to pounce.
There is also the not so small matter of PSG being experts at choking in the Champions League. They, like Manchester City, have put all their efforts into winning the trophy but they keep falling short. Last year they lost in the final to the best team in the world so no harm there. But who could forget them blowing a 2-0 lead to Manchester United or a 4-0 lead to Barcelona? It’s simply in their DNA at this point.
Blend all of that up and Tuchel has a powerful force he can use to his advantage to see his Chelsea side get one over on his former employer.
Cons: PSG is well aware of their history in the Champions League and, in these strange Covid times, that has seemingly been a boost for them. Tuchel got them into the finals last season quite comfortably and likely could have won it with them had Bayern not been the opponent. At the same time, Pochettino has made the final before (like Tuchel) with a much worse team. He has not been able to implement his tactics well in Paris yet but that may not matter when their most coveted piece of silverware is on the line.
Furthermore, even without solid tactics, PSG has one of the strongest teams in the world. Kylian Mbappe could absolutely wreck Chelsea’s current high line. Neymar too if he’s fit enough in time. That isn’t to mention the resurgent Angel Di Maria or even Mauro Icardi. Behind whatever trio they start will be a very solid midfield and defense that is nothing to shake a stick at either.
PSG is certainly beatable, but it would be the biggest coinflip matchup of the round if Chelsea draws them.
Who do you want to draw next round? Let us know in the comments and on Twitter!