In part three of this series, we discussed Leeds United’s Kalvin Phillips and how he would fit into a high-pressing side like Chelsea. We dissected the weaknesses and strengths of his gameplay and things he may potentially need to work on to succeed under Thomas Tuchel.
Now, we finally get to the much sought after defensive midfielder, Declan Rice. Rice is a 22-year-old England International who plays as a defensive midfielder for West Ham United. He also plays a lot as the deepest midfielder in a midfield three with a three centerback formation. Rice was Frank Lampard’s No. 1 target for defensive midfield, which apparently resulted in some friction with the Chelsea hierarchy. The Blues released Rice from their academy on a free transfer in 2014, when Rice was about 15 years old. He went on to join West Ham’s academy and has risen through the ranks to become an impressive player indeed.
An advantage with Rice is that while his numbers compared to other defensive midfielders might be lower, he’s much younger than most, which means when he becomes as old, he’s likely to be much better. Rice will be compared to Chelsea’s N’Golo Kante. Their numbers would be scrutinized from the beginning of the 2019/20 Premier League season until present day. Kante is used for the comparison because he’s the best player Chelsea has in the role in question.
Rice has made 15 appearances for England already and he is a key member of the West Ham squad that is currently pushing for Champions League football. Kante is perfect for the role, but he’s already 30 years old and has had to deal with recurring injuries lately, forcing the Chelsea coaching staff to manage his minutes. The Blues will want a long-term replacement for Kante, and at 22, Rice seems the perfect age to take over. Rice is also very good friends with many of Chelsea’s current academy graduates and he’ll fit right into the dressing room.
Play style
Rice plays in a team that is nearly opposite of the one Kante plays in. Rice’s West Ham plays in a mid-to-low block and looks to defend in numbers, hitting teams on the break with efficient passing, speed and off ball movement. West Ham pressed a lot more last season, coming in fifth in the Premier League for total pressures and sixth for total successful pressures. This season, West Ham is in the bottom five for total and successful pressures.
Notwithstanding, Rice himself has vey good pressing numbers, and he doesn’t allow opponents much time on the ball. He also looks to quickly release the ball to other players to start attacks, sometimes even picking out long balls to bypass pressing lines. Rice often presses higher up the field too, helping West Ham win the ball back in the final third, much like Kante. Rice has led his team in pressures in the middle and defensive third. He has featured mostly this season as the deepest midfielder in a 5-3-2 formation. He has also featured a lot in a two-man midfield pivot.
The England International is very adept, often staying back to snuff out counters and be available for defensive situations. He rarely getting carried away and runs forward. Rice has averaged 18.3 pressures compared to Kante’s 21.5. He has succeeded in 5.4 of them compared to Kante 7.2 per 90 in the time under scrutiny. Chelsea has been a high-pressing team since the start of last season, so it’s not surprising that Kante has higher pressures. Kante succeeds in about 3 percent more pressures per 90 than Rice though. It is worth mentioning that both teams have a stark difference in possession averages, with West Ham averaging 45 percent possession from the start of last season and Chelsea averaging 58 percent. This means that Rice would be expected to record more defensive actions, considering he plays as a defensive midfielder for a team that rarely enjoys possession.
Rice has 4.1 progressive carries per 90, compared to Kante’s 5.4. This doesn’t say as much as it seems to though, as Kante has a lot more of the ball per 90 than Rice. Kante has on average 75 touches per 90 compared to Rice’s 56 in the time under scrutiny. Rice, therefore, will often do less things on the ball than Kante. Kante and Rice also show alertness and willingness to recover possession, with Kante making 13.5 ball recoveries (picking up loose balls) compared to Rice’s 10.8. The above numbers indicate that Rice meets the out-of-possession requirements to play in a Tuchel team.
Defensive actions
Rice, interestingly, is second best in much of this category, despite playing for a side with a lot less possession, though his defensive numbers are impressive on their own. He has made two interceptions per game since the start of last season, compared to Kante’s 2.4. He has made 2.5 tackles per 90 compared to Kante’s 2.8. As it comes with the territory, being dribbled past is not something a defensive midfielder can always avoid, getting dribbled past 1.2 times per 90 compared to Kante’s 1.1.
He and Kante though are identical in ground duels won per 90 (3.8), but Rice wins his at a 56 percent rate, compared to Kante’s 49 percent. Rice is taller than Kante, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s stronger, though ground duels are a lot more than physical contests. The numbers suggest that Rice is better at winning ground duels because he wins the same as Kante at a much higher rate. Ground duels are important for a defensive midfielder, and an ability to win a majority of them is essential.
Kante and Rice block 0.2 shots per contest and they’re nearly identical in clearances, Rice making 1.3 clearances per 90 compared to Kante’s 1.4. Yes, Kante wins a majority of these comparison, but it is important to remember that he’s eight years older than Rice. If these statistics are this close now, imagine what they’d be like in four or five years time for Rice. Rice’s arrival at Stamford Bridge would likely mean his actions on the ball would increase and his actions off-the-ball will reduce, though that’s not a given as Kante is putting up the defensive numbers he is.
Midfielders—especially defensive midfielders—are hardly ever fully formed at an age as young as 22. But Rice is quite advanced for a 22-year-old and is the youngest midfielder we’ve scrutinized in this series so far, though still not the finished product. He has made 141 senior appearances for West Ham, that’s 141 opportunities to work on his skills in and out of possession at the highest level. He would be a splendid addition to this Chelsea side.
Passing
Rice has averaged less passes per 90 (40.5) than Kante (53.2), which isn’t surprising given the differences in possession averages of both teams. Rice (87 percent) edges Kante (86 percent) in pass completion. Rice completes more long balls every match though 3 to 2.6, but at a lower rate than Kante, 62 percent to 66 percent. A 62 percent long ball accuracy is superb in its own right. Kante (1.2) beats Rice (0.6) in key passes per 90 though, which could also be explained by the playing style of both players and the area of operation in their respective teams. Kante has more freedom and/or instruction to run forward while Rice mainly sits back. Despite this, both players have created three big chances since the start of last season, none of them have made any through passes though (passes that put a player through goal/one-on-one with with keeper).
In terms of impacting offensive play in possession, Kante also wins out, making 4.7 progressive passes per 90 compared to Rice’s three.
Central midfielders in Tuchel’s 3-4-3 will find themselves having a lot of the ball in most games. They will be tasked with tidy distribution, recycling of possession and often dribbling. Rice satisfies this, more than Kante even, as the Englishman and the Frenchman both average 1.1 dribbles per game in the time under scrutiny. However, the West Ham midfielder does it at a 79 percent success rate, compared to Kante’s 67 percent. This could indicate that Rice picks his moments to dribble more careful, which would be key in playing for Chelsea, as dribbling is just as important as not getting caught out in possession.
Rice ticks the box in the passing department.
Conclusion
David Moyes has to be given a lot of credit for Rice’s development too. He has constantly found ways to maximize Rice’s influence on the team. He has trusted him and given him the environment to ply his trade, while still placing demands of a top player on him. Rice is the vice-captain of West Ham, so he clearly has leadership qualities. As skipper Mark Noble has frequently been out of the side, Rice has captained West Ham in a lot of matches.
Rice clearly has the perfect blend of defensive awareness and efficient passing that would be perfect for Chelsea. Tuchel has decided on a 3-4-3 for the rest of the season, but if he chooses to switch to something different in the new season, he could need another midfielder. Depending on the formation he switches to, Rice might be the ideal buy. A 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 would mean Rice will fit seamlessly into the team. He has often played in a two-man midfield with Tomas Soucek, who compliments him perfectly. Rice could partner Mateo Kovacic, who brings the dribbling, press resistance and passing to the midfield, while Rice sits back and makes sure that Chelsea is not vulnerable in counter attacks. He would offer Tuchel different options tactically.
His pressing means that he’d deny teams time on the ball, to the satisfaction of Tuchel, he’d be key in winning the ball back as soon as it’s lost. His long ball accuracy means that he’d be able to pick out runners to start attacks, sometimes able to give an advantage to Chelsea to catch sloppy defenses out.
Rice is only 22, and while he’s already a very good player, he’d only get better from here. According to Transfermarkt he’s worth €60 million and his contract runs until 2024. Lampard had Rice at the top of his list, and seemed to want no one else (he can just take a lot at the series), perhaps that was what irritated the board. The fact that the Blues had released him for free in 2014, coupled with the price tag West Ham were demanding, may have also played a significant part in discouraging the deal. If Chelsea is going to get him away from West Ham, it’d have to pay big, as he’s already putting up numbers matching a player of much more maturity, while still just 22.
Data from WhoScored, SofaScore, FBRef and Transfermarkt on April 30, 2021.