Mateo Kovacic by the numbers: Drastic improvement in 2021/22

Mateo Kovacic is a Chelsea player with mercurial traits that either enamor fans or leave them with a sense of wanting more out of the Croatian international midfielder. The fans that sing Kovacic’s praises often tout his dribbling, press resistance, and keen talent to link the middle third of the pitch from the defense to the attack. On the other hand, many fans feel that Kovacic is poor defensively and does not track runners, lacks any sort of end product, and cannot play the passes to be direct enough in attacks.

Regardless of which side is more correct, Kovacic’s role in the Chelsea squad has continued to grow and flourish since Thomas Tuchel took over as a manager. Since Kovacic took the number eight and started the 2021/2022 season, he has shown signs that the once criticized aspects of his game are starting to change, and the Croatian has played a highly integral role for the Blues in the new campaign. Although the new season still has plenty of matches to be played, there is ample data to compare and contrast Kovacic on a per 90 basis from the 2020/2021 to 2021/2022 season. How has Kovacic improved in the new season? The below stats analysis attempted to answer this question in an objective manner.

Offensive Metrics

Kovacic has improved in all direct measures for goal involvements. Specifically worthwhile are that he is averaging 0.65 assists per 90 minutes in 2021/2022, and this is underpinned by the fact that he has also increased his expected assists since last season and is averaging nearly three times as many expected assists per 90 minutes as he was last season. This is simply a relatively remarkable improvement for Kovacic in an area that he is often criticized for. If he can continue this sort of rate, he will be strongly regarded as Chelsea’s best creative outlet in the squad. However, regression to the mean is likely, as Kovacic has never come close to this sort of production in assists throughout his career.

Additionally, Kovacic has increased his own direct efforts at the opponent’s goal. His shots per 90 is up to 1.54 this season, which is a significant increase from his 1.14 shots per 90 in the 2020/2021 season. Kovacic has also increased his accuracy and eye for goal, despite only having 1 goal in the 2021/2022 season, and this is evidenced by his increased goals per shot on target per 90 minutes.

Passing Metrics

Kovacic was previously discussed as a player that does not attempt nor complete enough longer and medium range passes, and like Jorginho, was criticized for too many sterile, short passes, particularly sideways passes. However, under Thomas Tuchel in 2021/2022, there are subtle yet important differences. However, these differences are best noticed with context.

Kovacic has been completing a higher percentage of his attempted short passes, but is completing less of his medium and long pass attempts. This is because Kovacic is attempting less overall passes this season (he has a reduced short, medium, and long attempted passes per 90 this season compared to last season), and with less attempted passes, there is larger variability in the completion percentages. However, Kovacic is making the most of his passing attempts and using them to significantly get other players involved in the offensive phases. This is evidenced by the increased shot creating actions (SCAs) and goal creating actions (GCAs) per 90 in 2021/2022.

Kovacic may not be playing as many passes into the final third, but he is creating more SCAs and GCAs. In conjunction with the fact that he is completing a lesser percentage of his long and medium passes, it suggests that Kovacic is playing higher up the field and closer to the final third, hence why he is playing less balls into the opponent’s final third but creating almost 5 times as many GCAs per 90 and almost twice as many SCAs per 90. This is highly suggestive that Kovacic is being used further up the field in attack and when transitioning after possession is lost. Kovacic is also producing 3.72 live pass SCA’s which is a significant increase from 2020/2021.

Kovacic is also producing more key passes and passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes than in the 2020/2021 season. Taking this in conjunction with the reduced final third passes per 90 but the increased number of SCAs and GCAs per 90, it has become clearer that Kovacic is being used in a capacity that is tasked with breaking lines and finding open players once the attack has reached the final third. And he is accomplishing this task very well.

Defensive Metrics

For the basic defensive metrics that were analyzed, Kovacic has increased all stats in 2021/2022 on a per 90 basis.

The largest improvement for Kovacic has come in his pressuring of the opponent per 90 minutes. This is a crucial aspect of all players within a team managed by Tuchel, and Kovacic has to be gaining more and more of his manager’s trust with defensive improvement in all aspects. Taking a look at Kovacic’s pressures per third per 90 minutes also supports the previously suggested idea that he is playing further up the pitch and being tasked with creating opportunities for others, instead of being used further back and as a reset option for the attack when it would break down like last season.

“PRESSURES GRAPH”

This graph is perhaps the most revealing and supportive that Kovacic is being used higher up the pitch in matches and that it is bringing out the best of him as a player. His ability to now pressure more in the middle and final thirds per 90, along with his increased SCAs, GCAs, key passes, passes into the penalty area, and lesser attempted long passes into the final third, are key reasons why Kovacic is making a strong claim for Chelsea’s Player of the Year, although there are still many matches left to be played at this point.

Overall, Mateo Kovacic is drastically improving his game in the most often criticized areas. He is continuing to be a silky-smooth dribbler on the ball, beat the opponent’s presses, link the thirds of the pitch on the ball, and play high percentage passes, but his transformation in the direct attacking phases of the game is most eye-popping. This is what Chelsea fans have been craving with Kovacic: a world class center midfielder who can be effective and consistently involved with the attacking phases of the game. This has long been an issue with Chelsea’s CM room since the departure of Cesc Fabregas, but there is reason to believe that Kovacic is beginning to alleviate some of these concerns, however so slightly.

Chelsea fans should be delighted at these stats and the overall improvement of Kovacic so far in the 2021/2022 season. These are the types of numbers that would easily position the Croatian for a second Chelsea Player of the Season award, and he is beginning to display why he is an essential cog of the team moving forward. There just are not other midfielders in this squad who can perform the specialized and general aspects of Kovacic’s game at this moment. These statistics per 90 will be difficult for Kovacic to continue for the rest of the season, and regression to the mean (in some capacity) is likely, but for the time being there is little to question or criticize: Kovacic has proved many wrong and will continue to do so.

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