Sit down in any pub across England and you’re bound to run into a Chelsea fan who proudly sings “Champions of Europe, we know what we are!” slightly indiscernibly while grasping a pint in one hand and raising the other in a rather celebratory manner. For those courageous enough to strike up a conversation with this individual, you’ll undoubtedly hear the story of a club whose history is ripe with legends and a trophy cabinet has been stocked full of domestic and international silverware. Yet, despite the accomplishments of the London-based club, one title has eluded the Blues—the FIFA Club World Cup.
This week, Chelsea gets its opportunity to fill that void. After qualifying through their Champions League victory last year, the Blues will begin an important journey toward winning their second trophy of the season as they clash with Al Hilal SFC. Make no mistake about it, Chelsea is favored to win the event as European clubs have dominated the competition over the past decade. However, the reigning European Champions’ form this season has been akin to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde and, frankly, we can’t be too sure which squad will walk onto the pitch in Abu Dhabi.
That said, let’s look at the key questions being asked of Chelsea ahead of the FIFA Club World Cup:
1. Which Chelsea squad will we see?
If you look at the stats, Chelsea is unequivocally one of the top clubs in the Premier League. The Blues maintain a 0.78 goal differential per 90 minutes (third in the PL), they average 3.38 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (third) and they allow just 0.75 goals against per 90 (second). For all intents and purposes, the Blues are a top team in every aspect of the game.
Unfortunately, these stats alone don’t tell the whole story. This season in particular, Chelsea has struggled to sustain its form, often matching the intensity and quality of its opponents. Just recently, the Blues frustratingly struggled to put away a lesser Plymouth Argyle squad in an FA Cup clash. They have also struggled against clubs like Brighton, Burnley, Leeds United and Zenit.
The reality is that this Chelsea squad is lacking confidence and consistency. While the stats tell us that the system is efficient, the results tell us that the players are not. Injuries and COVID-19 have surely amplified this concern, but it’s very clear that something has occurred to damage the chemistry of this group. That will have to change if the Blues want to hoist the FIFA Club World Cup Trophy in a few days’ time.
There is cause for optimism though. Chelsea is starting to earn the moniker of being a “cup team” following recent success in the UEFA Champions League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup. The club has displayed an unbelievable ability to rise to the occasion in big games. The Blues are 18-4-3 in cup matches since Thomas Tuchel’s arrival in January of 2021, outscoring opponents 41-12 in that time frame. A winning mentality will be critical for Chelsea, especially against clubs that are hunting the glory of being the ones to unseat the current European Champions. If Chelsea wants to win this tournament, it’ll have to come prepared to display the class it is capable of—starting on Wednesday against the Asian Champions, Al Hilal.
2. Can the attack find consistency?
If ever there was a discourse in the fanbase that would make you nod in agreement while also simultaneously escalating your blood pressure, it’s the one about the state of the Chelsea attack. Regardless of what side of the argument you find yourself on, the truth is somewhere in the middle.
The Blues field one of the most effective offensive sides in the league. They average 1.96 goals per 90 minutes, generating 4.96 shots on target with a conversion rate of 34 percent—all of which rank amongst the top of all Premier League clubs. It may be easy to be frustrated when watching Chelsea on the pitch, but the data suggests that it is efficient in a system that is well-coached. The challenge, however, lies in the consistency in the Blues’ forward play. It does not take an expert analyst or data scientist to conclude that Chelsea has one of the lackluster forward units in the league. Even after investing over £200 million on Timo Werner, Kai Havertz and Romelu Lukaku in the past two years, the Blues are desperately seeking a dangerous and consistent threat on their front line.
A glimpse of the data will tell you that Havertz, Lukaku and Werner all rank in the mid-to-lower tier of attacking statistics when compared to teammates. All sit outside of the top 10 when measuring goal-creating actions per 90 minutes, and Lukaku is the only striker who has a respectable conversion rate when assessing goals per shot on target (50 percent). If this Chelsea squad is to win the Club World Cup later this week, it’ll need to find consistency in its attack. Callum Hudson-Odoi, Mason Mount and Hakim Ziyech have all been consistent role players, but without an in-form Havertz or Lukaku reliably finishing chances, the Blues will surely struggle to get results against some of the toughest opposition the rest of the world has to offer.
3. How will Chelsea cope without Thomas Tuchel?
Tuchel has been Chelsea’s x-factor since the moment he arrived at Cobham over one year ago. His tactical brilliance rivals that of Antonio Conte, Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp, and his ability to make adjustments during matches has been instrumental to his side achieving success. The German’s presence alone is enough to give confidence to even the most pessimistic supporter as he’s delivered time and time again since taking over the Blues. Now that Tuchel is confirmed to have contracted COVID-19, there is reasonable concern amongst the fanbase regarding the impact it may have on the squad. These concerns were heightened following Chelsea’s inability to put Plymouth away with the relative ease that should’ve been required on Saturday.
Perhaps everything will be fine, Tuchel will most likely be connected to the squad virtually throughout the week in training and he will be able to provide feedback during matches to his assistants. Still, one cannot help but feel some hesitation without the Blues’ fearless leader to be there on the touchline in a massive tournament. After all, Tuchel hasn’t lost a semifinal in his career at any level. After watching the match against Plymouth without Tuchel on the sideline, it was apparent how significant his physical presence is to the players. Whether it’s a quick adjustment on the fly, a pep talk to oncoming subs or a comprehensive change to the game plan, Tuchel’s absence has ramifications that could cost this Blues squad a desired trophy.
If Tuchel is out long-term (meaning the entirety of the two-match tournament), it will be on more than just Arno Michels to lead this squad. Cesar Azpilicueta, Thiago Silva and even young Mount will have to play key leadership roles in order to set the tone and mentality for this Chelsea group ahead of its pursuit of the rare FIFA Club World Cup title.
Prediction: The Blues will become World Champions
Like any other competition, the FIFA Club World Cup poses its own unique questions and challenges. It is impossible to answer these questions or to know exactly how things will turn out, but isn’t that part of the fun? Even with all the external variables influencing this Chelsea squad at the moment, I am confident that the Blues will be champions at the tournament’s end. We’ll hopefully be back in our pubs, singing our songs and daring some poor fool to ask us why we love Chelsea. To top us off, here are some brief predictions for our pathway to glory:
Semifinal Result: Chelsea 3-1 Al Hilal (Man of the Match: Mason Mount)
A tough match against a high-energy, high-confidence opponent will test Chelsea early on. I expect Chelsea will look to gain its bearing in the first 15-20 minutes of the match, but eventually breakthrough thanks to Mount’s work rate and ability to create shots for his teammates.
Final Result: Chelsea 2-1 SE Palmeiras (Man of the Match: Edouard Mendy)
Palmeiras is a competitive squad with a great mentality and it’ll certainly make the Blues work for their result. I predict that Palmeiras will put the Blues on the ropes early but a battle-tested Edouard Mendy will help prevent this one from getting away. Down 0-1 early, Chelsea comes back with goals from Mount and Lukaku to lift its second trophy of the year.
Golden Ball: Mason Mount
I’m of the belief that Mount is looking for one more signature moment to cement himself as a future captain and legend at Chelsea—this is that moment. Mount’s greatest attribute is his commitment to the shirt and his desire to leave it all on the pitch. My prediction is that he will be the best player on the pitch in the first match and score the match-winner in the final.
What is your prediction for the tournament? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!