Chelsea has lost two games already this season, Saturday opponents West Ham United are not doing any better having lost three of their first five. Thomas Tuchel’s men are already eight points behind the league leaders and need to start picking up consecutive wins quickly.
The problem is that their next opponents are not any easier than the opponents they’ve already faced. Chelsea would likely have completed the Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang signing by then so there may be fresh hope by the time the games actually come around. Truth is, where the Blues has just been plain bad, David Moyes’s men have been unlucky, but here are three things to watch out for as CFC go into their third derby already this season.
Chelsea’s Set pieces and defending
Chelsea has already conceded too many goals from set pieces this season. They conceded the last minute Harry Kane header against Tottenham Hotspur in the London Derby; the Rodrigo header in the London Derby against Leeds United, and the Romeo Lavia strike against Southampton. That’s three goals allowed from set pieces out of eight goals already conceded in five games. West Ham has been a better defensive unit than Chelsea this season.
Moyes’s men have conceded just 16 shots on target after five games, compared to Chelsea’s 27. No, it’s not because their opponents have been bad shooters, as two of their opponents this season were Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur. The Hammers only allowed five shots on target across those two games. In fact against Manchester City, their two shots on target came from one player: Erling Haaland. This means that Chelsea has averaged 5.4 shots on target allowed per game this season, compared to West Ham’s 3.2. The difference is clear.
Chelsea doesn’t have aerially dominant players anymore, and it’s showing in set pieces. West Ham on the other hand, are very dominant in set piece situations as they are yet to concede a goal from a set piece. West Ham’s Kurt Zouma has contested 18 aerial duels this season and he’s won 16 of them. That means he’s won 3.2 aerials per game and at an 89% win rate. By comparison, Virgil van Dijk who’s an inch taller than the Frenchman, has won 3.6 aerials per game at a 72% win rate. Zouma has the highest aerial success rate of any outfielder in the Premier League amongst players that have contested up to 10 aerial duels. Chelsea doesn’t have anyone who can match Zouma in the air.
The Blues have confirmed the signing of Leicester City’s Wesley Fofana, who is as tall as Zouma, but he’s nowhere near as good in the air. Admittedly, Thiago Silva is has been good in the air this season, at a 64% aerial duels success rate (also 3.2 per game), and has been magnificent in ground duels, winning 2.8 per game at an 82% win rate. However West Ham knows their strengths, and they’d likely try to force the game to be about set pieces, so Chelsea’s best chance is to make sure they don’t put West Ham in a lot of set piece situations. Will Tuchel consider playing his three tallest centerbacks in Trevoh Chalobah (1.9m), Wesley Fofana (1.9m) and Kalidou Koulibaly (1.87m) to try and deal with this game’s inevitable physical and aerial battles?
Chance creation
Chelsea has been lacking in goal scoring chances this season. They are creating shots, but not quality shots. The Blues undoubtedly want to close the gap on Liverpool and Manchester City this season, but they cannot do that if they cannot create enough to do that. Chelsea will come up against a West Ham team that will likely sit back and maintain their shape and try to counter. The Blues will need to be smart in possession in addition to having it.
Tuchel’s men have created 1.8 big chances per game, including penalties. This is significantly lower than Arsenal (3), Liverpool (3) and Manchester City (4.8). Even Brighton & Hove Albion (2.6) is creating more big chances per game than Chelsea. Yes, it’s just five games in, but that hasn’t stopped Manchester City and Liverpool from starting as they mean to go on. Chelsea should be aiming to create at least 3 big chances per game this season if they want to get closer to the top of the table. Their main creative players featuring now are Mason Mount and Reece James.
Hakim Ziyech too has only started one out of five games and is being linked with a move away. Amongst all those players, James and Ziyech are the only players you can say pick locks. Chelsea has struggled when up against teams that have a good defensive structure. If Ziyech leaves, the creative potency of the team reduces by at least 25%. The window closes today and it’s unlikely that Chelsea gets what it need in the market this late in the window.
Chelsea’s forwards have the bulk of the responsibility to create chances, along with the wingbacks. This means that they cannot focus on scoring and creating at the same time, because the movements of a player trying to create a scoring chance and that of a player trying to get on the end of one are completely different.
The midfield battle
Chelsea’s midfield has struggled with protecting the backline and escaping pressure this season. They have many non-holding midfielders that Tuchel has been forced to play as holding midfielders due to injuries and other circumstances. Conor Gallagher is best suited to playing in an advanced midfield role and when it’s a pivot there’s no space for an advanced midfield role. Gallagher is not yet disciplined enough to curb his natural tendencies and play the role of a holding midfielder, even though he’s a good tackler.
Many fans have highlighted Jorginho as the fall guy for the Blues midfield problems, but a midfield pivot only works when both players know their roles. Jorginho has been left to cover large amounts of space in too many defensive situations to be taking any blame for what’s happening at the moment. Jorginho has attempted the most tackles out of all CFC’s central midfielders this season. He’s also not had a consistent partner since the season started. One thing is certain though: Chelsea’s midfield has struggled this season, and no, it’s not any one players fault, but it’s a glaring problem that Tuchel needs to address before the next game, because West Ham’s Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek are no slouches.
The Southampton and Leeds games showed why the Blues cannot afford to continue the way they’ve been playing. The midfield is responsible for distributing the ball to the forward line. When they cannot do that, the forwards suffer because they get no service, and the defenders suffer because they have no way of escaping pressure. Leeds and Southampton pressed the Blues perfectly, and the midfield was unable to string passes together, get out of pressure and supply the front line. It might be time to give Billy Gilmour a chance, since he’s not an attacking no. 8 and actually understands what the role of a holding midfielder is.