Here is your betting guide to the Champions League match between Chelsea and RB Salzburg.
I can honestly say there have been few days in my life when I woke up to more surprising news than last Wednesday morning when Thomas Tuchel was sacked. The Blues were thoroughly embarrassed in terms of both effort and effectiveness by Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League the day before. But no credible media outlets were reporting anything in the way of a managerial change.
The fanbase is predictably fractured over the decision, but outsiders were united in their shock that the German tactician who brought our beloved CFC to European glory a mere 16 months ago is no longer at the helm in west London. As a supporter of this club, I’m more than accustomed to coaching instability, but I always felt like it was going to be different with Tuchel.
Todd Boehly and the Blues’ ownership moved fast though, appointing Graham Potter to be the new man on the touchline at Stamford Bridge merely days after Tuchel’s dismissal. The former Brighton boss has fortunately been handed extra preparation time due to the Premier League’s game cancellations over the weekend, but facing off against a well-known giant killer with real European heritage in RB Salzburg will be no easy task.
The sheer uncertainty surrounding Chelsea makes me hesitant to bet on the final result, so I’ll probably be steering clear of any wagers in that arena. The only play that I feel particularly confident about is under 3.5 total goals scored at -156 odds. The 2020/21 European champions have struggled mightily in their first competitive matches following recent managerial sackings. In fact, the team failed to score in its first meaningful 90’ under Maurizio Sarri, Frank Lampard, and Tuchel himself, losing those games by a combined 6-0 scoreline.
Considering the fact that Potter has had so little time to work with his new players, I wouldn’t expect much offensive creativity from one of Chelsea’s stalest forward lines in living memory. At the very least, it will probably take a few matches for the struggling attackers to find their top form.
This lack of goals would, however, be in stark contrast to the trend of Salzburg’s early clashes. RB has been finding the back of the net with relative ease in the Austrian Bundesliga, scoring 21 times in only eight matches. Manager Matthias Jaissle has built an incredible attacking triumvirate in Noah Okafor, Fernando, and Benjamin Sesko, who have combined for 12 of those 21 domestic goals, with his side sitting comfortably atop of the Austrian Bundesliga table.
Salzburg’s scoring output is enough to force the bookmakers to raise the over/under total an entire goal for this contest, which hasn’t happened to Chelsea since the first game of the season at Everton. To me, it seems like FanDuel is pushing the narrative that this will be a high-scoring, end-to-end affair. Don’t buy into the hype.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of September 12)
Chelsea ML: -300
RB Salzburg ML: +700
Draw: +450
Over/Under: 3.5 (+128/-156)
My picks:
It was inevitable that I’d suffer my first 0/3 at some point, but the fact that it came during the match that led to Tuchel’s sacking makes it especially painful. Regardless, I’m back with three picks for the Blue’s second UCL match, one of which I feel particularly strongly about. I would throw your biggest bet of the day on under 3.5 total goals at -156 and pray that Potter has re-stabilized the back line.
Additionally, I’ll take the second half to have the most goals prop at -102 odds and close things out with the both teams to score prop at -138. While I’m not particularly confident in the west London outfit pulling off the win, Potter’s (albeit brief) European experience gives me some hope.