Here is your betting guide to the Premier League showdown between Chelsea and Aston Villa as PoL’s gambling expert offers tips for the match.
That’s four wins in a row now for CFC and the Graham Potter era could hardly have gotten off to a better start. The Blues have combined to score 11 goals in five matches since the Englishman’s appointment, but more encouraging than anything is the brand of football being played. The interplay between the defense, midfield, and attack is much more fluid than it was at the end of Thomas Tuchel’s stint as manager, while specific players who struggled for form under the German tactician have regained their confidence and are performing much better as well.
Following a second consecutive victory over AC Milan on Tuesday, Potter and his squad now find themselves in the driver’s seat of their Champions League group and in solid contention to finish top four in the Premier League. The growing injury list and soon-to-be expiring contracts are clear areas of concern, but things on the pitch are moving in the right direction at least.
The same cannot be said for the Blues’ next opponent, Aston Villa. The Birmingham side made a number of high-profile signings in the summer to support Steven Gerrard, but so far neither the players nor the manager have shown great returns. Villa has only scored seven goals in their nine Premier League contests, courtesy of seven different goalscorers.
The Midlands team’s eight big chances created are third-worst in the English top flight, and Gerrard in particular has displayed a tactical inflexibility that simply will not cut it against the world’s best coaches. I wouldn’t be shocked if Chelsea haunts the Liverpool legend yet again by sending him to the unemployment line after Sunday’s match.
I’m a little bit surprised at the moneyline odds for the game, as the Blues only sit as a -125 favorite as I write this guide. Perhaps the oddsmakers are putting a lot of stock in Reece James’ knee injury, which looks set to keep the starlet on the sidelines until after the World Cup. James has obviously been a massive contributor to Chelsea’s recent success, and his injury last season coincided with the team’s worst period of form as well.
I’m confident in Potter’s ability to navigate the Villa match without his best player, potentially by deploying Ruben Loftus-Cheek on the right side of the midfield to assist Cesar Azpilicueta at right back, as he did in the win against Wolves. I still expect the moneyline number to move further in favor of the 2020/21 European champs as kickoff approaches, so I would play it down to around -150 or -160 if it gets that far.
Another bet I like for Sunday is Chelsea to score over 0.5 goals in the first half at -116 odds. The pride of west London has done so in each of its past four games and will want to continue this trend against the Villans, who themselves were victims of an early goal in their previous contest against Forest. This is honestly the best value play I could find on FanDuel for the match.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of October 14)
Chelsea ML: -125
Aston Villa ML: +350
Draw: +260
Over/Under: 2.5 (+110/-134)
My picks
For the first time in a while, I’m feeling pretty confident about Chelsea coming away with a result. I don’t like this semi-comfortable feeling, so I’ve convinced myself there’s a small chance that the Blues sleepwalk into the match and get caught off guard. I know that probably won’t happen, but welcome to the inside of my brain. Anyways, I’m taking the two aforementioned bets; Chelsea moneyline at -125 and Chelsea to score over 0.5 goals in the first half at -116.
I unofficially think the value on the Blues -1 at +250 is incredible, but I’m playing it safe here. For my final pick, give me the club from the capital to be winning at either halftime or full-time at -155 odds. I’ve never put money on this play before, but it seems pretty solid against Aston Villa. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.