Here is your betting guide to the EFL Cup match between Chelsea and Manchester City via The Pride of London’s gambling expert Mike Malley.
Can the World Cup get here any sooner? The matches leading up to football’s biggest tournament have been pretty disastrous for the Blues so far, and things could certainly get worse over the next week. The Blues suffered two consecutive Premier League losses for the first time all year, at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal, respectively, and have to face two of the toughest sides in the English top flight in their next two contests.
Facing Man City in the third round of the EFL Cup isn’t ideal, as it could, and likely will prematurely end the five-time winners’ chance at securing another piece of silverware. Collecting smaller trophies has been a difficult task for the pride of London in recent seasons, and it seems like this trend will continue in 2022/23.
Graham Potter’s record in cup competitions is also a slight concern for me. While manager at Brighton, the Englishman never guided his team past the fifth round of a domestic cup. The Seagulls were dispatched in the early rounds, albeit against generally more talented opposition, despite having reached the FA Cup semi-final in 2018/19 under Chris Hughton.
There are certainly elements of randomness and luck for smaller teams making runs in cup competitions, but considering how well Potter’s Brighton performed in the league, it’s surprising his side never came close to Wembley. Reaching the final will obviously be the Chelsea gaffer’s ultimate goal, but defeating City on the road would be a massive achievement in itself.
Those of you who have been following the betting guides since we started putting them out last season will know that I rarely like to bet against the Blues. It gives off bad vibes, in my opinion, and I don’t really enjoy watching Chelsea matches when I’m financially incentivized to hope they lose. That being said, it would be wrong to give out pro-Chelsea picks when I genuinely think the team is going to lose, as I do ahead of Wednesday’s clash.
So, I’ve been monitoring the pro-City props and feel pretty confident that the side from the north will be winning at halftime, which comes in at +100 odds. Guardiola’s men haven’t led after 45’ since they were beating Brighton 2-0 back on October 22. Shockingly, this was the only time City was winning at the interval in the last month. To say the Citizens are due to dominate an opening half would be a massive understatement, and the Blues’ penchant for giving away an early goal makes me even more confident this could happen.
Another bet I’m leaning towards is over 2.5 goals scored in the match at -165. Both Chelsea and City have surpassed this number in three of their previous five matches. Only one of the previous five meetings between these two sides eclipsed 2.5 goals, but this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering Thomas Tuchel was at the helm for all of them. The German tactician was particularly adept at setting up his team to absorb pressure from Guardiola’s men and attack on the break; a strategy that generally doesn’t allow for many goals to be scored if executed successfully.
Potter’s Blues have so far been unable to replicate this solid defensive structure, but they’ve also shown more willingness to dictate play around the opposition’s box. This change in approach, as well as the Citizens adding the unstoppable goalscorer Erling Haaland, is sure to provide better entertainment value for neutrals.
Official odds (via WynnBet as of October 8)
Chelsea ML: +525
Manchester City ML: -210
Draw: +365
Over/Under: 2.5 (-165/+130)
My Chelsea picks:
It’s a throwback edition of the Pride of London betting guide this week, with odds coming courtesy of our old friends at WynnBet. Hopefully, we can improve on our winning percentage from last season, when we used WynnBet exclusively. Regardless of the sportsbook, I’m confident in my picks for Wednesday. First, I’ll take Manchester City to be winning at halftime at +100, as well as the aforementioned over 2.5 goals at -165. Finally, I’ll take CFC +1.5 against the Asian Handicap at -155 odds. I do expect the Citizens to come out on top, but I’m hoping the Blues can at least keep it close. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.