Here is the betting guide to Chelsea’s Premier League match against Newcastle United, provided by The Pride of London’s gambling expert, Mike Malley.
I’m finding it difficult to describe how I feel about this Chelsea season right now. At times, the Blues have looked like a legitimate European contender who should be challenging for its third Champions League crown. At others, though, they’ve struggled to hold their own against less talented mid-table Premier League sides. I don’t think the team’s biggest problem is only the players or only the manager, as both are more than deserving of criticism for the inconsistent performances put on display over the past few weeks.
Wednesday’s defeat at Man City was itself a confusing spectacle. The Blues probably created the three biggest chances of the entire match but failed to convert on any of them. This lack of ruthlessness in front of goal has plagued CFC for nearly two years now, but it became much more painfully obvious in a crucial cup tie against the best domestic competition there is. I’m honestly not too upset about being knocked out in the third round of the League Cup, as it will give Graham Potter and his squad much-needed training time down the line. The loss does feel like a huge missed opportunity to turn the narrative of the London side’s season around, though.
The Blues’ final fixture before the World Cup break, a trip north to St. James’ Park, will be another massive test of the team’s resolve. I don’t like to use the phrase “must-win” very often, but it feels pretty appropriate in this instance. Anything less than three points from this game will leave Chelsea at least five points adrift in an extremely condensed battle for the right to play in next year’s UCL. Seeing Newcastle favored on the moneyline will definitely take some getting used to, but +130 feels like a fair price for the surging Magpies. I’m tempted to throw a little money there myself for the emotional hedge.
Newcastle’s rapid rise to the top of the EPL is obviously due to the investment from the Saudi Arabia PFI, but the club’s footballing management does deserve credit for collecting and organizing an extremely gifted squad. Miguel Almiron and Bruno Guimaraes have been two of the league’s best performers this season, with 13 goals and assists between them, while the Magpies’ backline has conceded the joint-fewest goals in the Premier League. Eddie Howe’s ability to balance his exciting attacking talent with a pragmatic defensive structure has been nothing short of masterful. His side’s 2.0 goals per game average trails only City and Arsenal, both of which dispatched of Chelsea with relative ease in the past seven days. I predict Newcastle will reach its average on Saturday, and possibly even eclipse it, so give me the home team to score over 1.5 goals at +124 odds.
While I greatly respect the threat of the Magpies’ forwards, I expect Potter and his boys to keep this contest close. Three of Chelsea’s six losses have been by a single goal, while three of Newcastle’s eight victories have also come by the slimmest of margins. I’m 1-for-2 against the spread for our Pride of London betting guides this season and I feel pretty good about taking the points here. CFC +1 at -165 odds is pretty solid value, in my opinion, but I fully support anyone who wants to take a flier on the Blues moneyline at +210. The recent history of this fixture would back this bet, as the club from the capital has won ten of its previous 13 clashes with the Toons dating back to the 2015/16 campaign, including four straight.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of November 11)
Chelsea ML: +210
Newcastle United ML: +130
Draw: +240
Over/Under: 2.5 (-110/-110)
My picks:
It’s been tough sledding over the past four games for our betting guides, but I’m a believer that the best time to turn your gambling luck around is always right now. Let’s hope for at least 2-for-3 in the Newcastle contest. Although I wrote earlier that I like the Magpies’ value on the moneyline at +130, I’m not making that an official pick. Instead, I’ll take Chelsea +1 against the spread at -165 odds, as well as over 1.5 goals for the home side at +124. I’m going back to the well of the both teams to score prop for my final pick, this time at -144 odds. I can’t lie, I’m feeling the adrenaline ahead of this make-or-break match for both the Blues and the Pride of London betting guides. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.