Well Blues fans, I hope the World Cup has been an enjoyable break from what has so far been a difficult campaign for our favorite club team. Chelsea’s season has been marred by ownership controversies, managerial changes, and an incredibly perplexing squad that at times has competed like a serious contender for another European crown, and at others played more like a relegation candidate. Graham Potter and his men currently sit eighth in the Premier League and await cup ties against Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City in the Champions League and FA Cup, respectively. The results in these competitions will largely shape the consensus view of how successful this year was for the pride of London, so progressing to later stages is of the utmost importance.
Let’s put our frustrations with CFC behind us, though, and focus on a World Cup that has so far provided pretty incredible entertainment value. There have been some incredible upsets, namely Saudi Arabia’s now-famous win over Argentina and Japan’s miraculous comeback to progress ahead of Germany. Even the 0-0 draws, of which there have been many, have largely been consequential in eliminating a few of the pre-tournament front-runners. Betting these surprising results has been extremely profitable if you’ve picked your spots well, as has been backing the Blues to win at Qatar 2022. These are my three best bets involving Chelsea players for the World Cup round of 16.
All odds via FanDuel as of December 2
Morocco (and Chelsea winger Hakim Ziyech) to qualify for the next round vs. Spain (+330)
Some readers might think I’m crazy for even selecting this as one of my bets, but this is honestly my favorite pick for the entire round of 16. The Atlas Lions have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 World Cup so far, topping Group F with wins over Canada and Belgium and a draw against Croatia. The Blues’ enigmatic winger, Hakim Ziyech, is the central figure in the Moroccan attack, scoring once and assisting once on the right side of a dangerous triumvirate with Youssef En-Nesyri and Sofiane Boufal.
In typical Ziyech fashion, the Wizard of Ams found the back of the net from nearly the halfway line in what is so far probably the goal of the tournament. The fact that he’s even featuring for Morocco is pretty shocking considering he had announced his retirement from the national team after being left out of the 2021 AFCON squad amid a fallout with then-manager Vahid Halilhodzic. Ziyech’s teammates and countrymen are undoubtedly glad to see him back donning the famous red jersey.
While the Atlas Lions are carrying tons of momentum following their group stage performance, the exact opposite can be said for their opponents, Spain. Luis Enrique and his boys were shocked by Japan 2-1 on matchday three, with only their significant goal difference thanks to the 7-0 drubbing of Costa Rica taking La Seleccion through to the knockout round.
Spain’s inability to break down the Japanese with its trademark tiki-taka passing game was incredibly surprising, even drawing notice from the commentators, but perhaps now Morocco has a playbook for how to handle the 2010 world champions. Scoring the first goal will be imperative, and from there the Moroccans will need to sit deep and prevent Alvaro Morata from making runs in behind the defense. The Spanish No. 7 is the joint-top scorer at the tournament right now along with four other players, but Morata is the only one to have scored in every match. Shutting the former Chelsea striker down will be no easy task, but I’m confident that the Atlas Lions’ back line, which thus far hasn’t allowed a single goal to an opposing player, will stay solid. The odds are already incredible at +330, but I’m highly considering sprinkling a flier on a Morocco to advance/Ziyech anytime goalscorer parlay at +1560.
England ML vs. Senegal (-190)
I wanted to highlight this round of 16 matchup during this article because it features the most Chelsea players. I count at least four who will likely play a significant role in the tie: Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling for England, Kalidou Koulibaly and Edouard Mendy for Senegal. The Blues’ Englishmen could find themselves out of Gareth Southgate’s first XI following tremendous individual performances by Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford in the Three Lions’ final group stage outing, but I imagine we’ll see cameos from both Mase and Raz at some point during the clash.
Especially if Foden is named in the starting lineup, I like England’s chances to advance without the need for extra time or penalty kicks. The City starlet brings a different dynamism to the English attack, linking play smoothly between the double-pivot of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane in the No.9 role. Foden’s relentless energy, much like Mount’s, is also critical in the Three Lions’ desire to dominate possession in every game they play. They’ve controlled the ball in 66.1 per cent of their matches, which is third best at the World Cup behind only Spain and Argentina. I predict they’ll exercise the same tactics against Senegal.
If the Senegalese are to push for the upset, they’ll have to be content with sitting deep and defending for most of the contest, similar to what the United States did during its 0-0 draw with the Three Lions on matchday two. By luring the English back line further up the pitch, the Lions of Teranga can create a ton of room to send through balls behind the defense for their forwards to chase. Watford’s Ismaila Sarr is the key man to watch in these scenarios, as his combination of pace and technical ability will inevitably cause problems for England’s defenders. Closing off these passing outlets and suffocating Senegal’s attack will be vital for the Three Lions’ chances at advancing to the quarterfinals for the third consecutive major tournament.
I’m expecting a professional victory from Southgate and his men, who have so far looked like one of the top teams in Qatar. Given the English moneyline victory currently sits at -190 odds, it’s clear that our friends at FanDuel are thinking similarly.
Brazil 2022 World Cup Winner (+200)
Since I gave out a massive underdog pick with Morocco advancing over Spain, I had to balance things out with at least one bet that most people will support. The Brazilians were favorites coming into the tournament, with Tite selecting one of the most skillful squads in recent World Cup history. The names on the teamsheet alone are enough to strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenders, with attacking superstars like Neymar, Raphinha, Richarlison, and Vinicius Jr. littering this edition of A Selecao.
The Brazilians displayed their dominance throughout the group stage, topping Group G to create a relatively easy run-in to the semifinals. They’ll face South Korea, one of the many AFC nations that miraculously qualified for the knockout stages thanks to a last-minute victory over Portugal, in the round of 16, before squaring off with either Croatia or Japan in the quarterfinals. Respect to these nations for advancing further than many would’ve expected before the tournament started, but I don’t think anyone can see the five-time champions making an early exit.
While Brazil has always been known for its flashy jogo bonito playing style, most of the credit for this team’s success must go to the defense, led by Chelsea’s own Thiago Silva. More than a few eyebrows were raised when Tite announced he would be entering the tournament with Alex Sandro, Danilo, Dani Alves, and Alex Telles as his fullbacks, as many of these players are probably past their primes. However, the longtime Brazilian gaffer’s selection has proven that experience can be an invaluable asset at major international tournaments. Behind the leadership of Silva and Marquinhos at center back, the Brazilians boasted the best defensive record during the group stage and will certainly look to continue collecting clean sheets as the competition progresses.
The tricks and flicks of A Selecao’s magical forwards will garner attention from casual viewers on social media, but true football fans know that a stout back line is key to ultimately hoisting the World Cup trophy. Silva’s leadership and skill are crucial to Brazil sustaining its run as a fortified defensive juggernaut. I’ll admit that the value on this future isn’t the best at only +200 odds, but it’s better than anything you’ll find for individual Brazil matches going forward.
Betting any one side to win the World Cup after only the group stage is a somewhat risky proposition, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a collection of players as talented as the current one donning the famous yellow jersey. All games are available on fuboTV in both English and Spanish – here’s a link to a free trial for FS’s Chelsea readers.