It may not have been the most beautiful of matches for Emma Hayes and the Blues, but in the end, Chelsea still managed to secure a positive result on the road in the Champions League. In the midst of CFC attempting to recover after a sluggish first half, Sam Kerr continues to show signs of worry, missing a multitude of opportunities that a striker of her quality normally puts away.
The Blues had a chance to punish Los Blancos on one of their weaknesses, set pieces, and corner kicks just two minutes into the match. Real Madrid failed to clear the ball once again, and when the ball found Kerr at the six-yard box, Kerr not only had one opportunity to find the lead but two chances to set CFC up for success the rest of the way. Even though there were plenty of white jerseys in front of the month of the goal, Kerr had plenty of room to put away at least one chance.
The former two-time NWSL MVP rattled the crossbar on her second attempt, beginning a half filled with dissatisfaction for the Blues. Kerr would have chances in the eighth minute, and the 29th minute, both of them off of passes from her running mate, Lauren James. The one that Chelsea fans and critics will not forget from this match was in the final minutes when Guro Reiten placed nearly a mirror image of her assist to Kerr at the King Power.
The ball curled around Spanish defender Rocío Gálvez and found Kerr one on one with the goalkeeper, but a world-class Misa Rodríguez save kept the game knotted a one apiece. Kerr has now finished below her expected goals total for the second straight match, but her ability to be in the right place at the right time should be promising when the Australian finds her form once again.
After the triumph over Vllaznia, many believed after a four-goal outing that the Aussie would be on her way to another goal-filled season. But, in reality, Kerr’s shooting boots have been surprisingly inconsistent.
It has always been true that Kerr usually finishes somewhat close to her expected goals, with the expectation of last season’s 20-goal Women’s Super League masterclass. Over the last five seasons, not counting the 2021/22 campaign, Kerr has accumulated a goal total of 4.6 of her expected goals in each respective domestic league. At this point last season, Kerr already had 13 goals in all competitions, but right now, Kerr has only been able to muster up nine. Now, this is a small criticism given the run that the Blues have been on over the last few months, but is one of those chances missed by Kerr in the first half going to cost Chelsea later on in the Champions League?
The largest concern has to be that Kerr right now is sitting at her lowest expected goals per 90-minute total in her professional career at 0.60. On top of that, Kerr has accumulated a career-low shots-on-target percentage at just 41.6 percent on 34 shots in the WSL. In her first full season with the Blues, Kerr was flying, putting together an expected goals total of 1.03 in 22 matches played in the WSL.
These instances could mean she is getting into different positions compared to the past, but her effect on the match each time out is evident.
Nobody in the world can do what Kerr does up top, not only due to her ability to find the back of the net but the way she puts the goalkeeper and defense under constant pressure in order to create potential chaos for the opposition.
Those aspects might perhaps be indicative of how Kerr is evolving as a striker at this point in her career. And, for now, it seems to be a positive sign for the success of CFC.
A point is still a step closer to qualifying for the Champions League quarterfinals, and despite Kerr’s continued struggles, this team has learned to not lean on the generation talent that is Kerr so much. 13 different players have found the back of the net already this season, matching last season’s total before the middle of December.
Overall, the Blues should not be worried about their performances, especially when Los Blancos only really created one quality chance all game on a mistake from Ann-Katrin Berger. In regards to Kerr, there could be a need for a larger sample size to see a more prominent regression in the goals department, but throughout her career, the Australian has found ways to fight through adversity both on and off the pitch. This is simply another bump in the road for a living legend that should be able to figure out the solutions to her inconsistencies in front of the net while the team continues to piece together successful results.