Here are your betting guide and tips for Chelsea’s Premier League contest with Bournemouth via Mike Malley.
Well, Chelsea fans, it’s been quite a while, but the Premier League is finally back with an exciting slate of Boxing Day fixtures. The Blues will have an extra day to prepare for their return to domestic competition, with a visit from relegation candidates Bournemouth on tap for Tuesday evening. The club from the capital struggled mightily leading up to the World Cup break, losing four of its final five matches with only two goals scored during that stretch. There’s no doubt that supporters are growing weary of these uninspiring performances from Graham Potter and his boys, but the club hierarchy is insistent the Englishman is the solution to long-term success at Stamford Bridge, regardless of how this season ends. It might be time to readjust our expectations for the remainder of the 2022/23 campaign.
Despite the Blues’ disappointing current position in the table, there are still reasons to be excited about English football restarting. According to reports, Chelsea is close to finalizing deals for RB Leipzig’s Christopher Nkunku, Molde’s David Datro Fofana, and Vasco da Gama’s Andrey Santos, although the Frenchman likely wouldn’t join until the summer of 2023. The other, and significantly more important, cause for my excitement is the abundance of matches to bet on.
I love a lot of moneyline plays for games on Boxing Day proper (Brighton and Newcastle are both locks, you’re welcome), but there isn’t a ton of value in betting on the former European champions at -310 odds. It’s time to get to work folks, because we’re diving deep into the props for this clash. Keeping an eye on the spread probably wouldn’t be a horrible idea either.
The most difficult thing about gambling on this matchweek is that nobody knows how each team will perform coming out of the World Cup break. Many squads still aren’t complete with players returning late from the nations that advanced deep into the tournament. Others, Chelsea included, may have benefitted from the time off with key contributors healing from their long-term injuries. Reece James is finally available for selection after missing a few games with a knee problem sustained at the San Siro back in October.
I expect the long hiatus to bring about a little rust for both sides, at least in the first 45’ of the contest, so I’m liking under 1.5 first-half goals at -192 odds. Recent results would suggest low-scoring opening periods are becoming a trend for the Blues, as their past three matches have all gone into halftime scoreless.
I’ll double down on a lack of excitement with my second pick, this time selecting under 2.5 total goals at +120. The uncertainty surrounding player availability and a lack of cohesive training time for nearly every squad will probably see scoring down on average around the Premier League this weekend, so slamming unders isn’t a terrible strategy overall.
Combine that with the fact that these are two of the worst-scoring teams in the division, and my expectations couldn’t be any lower for the entertainment value of this matchup. Perhaps one of CFC or Bournemouth will surprise us and display an attacking prowess that neither has been able to so far this season, but I highly doubt it. I appreciate the value on this bet as well.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of December 25)
Chelsea ML: -310
Bournemouth ML: +800
Draw: +440
Over/Under: 2.5 (-146/+120)
My picks
Boxing Day will be a good barometer for my theory about lower score lines across the English top flight during matchweek 17, so we’ll have ample evidence to know if we’re in good shape for Tuesday. The two aforementioned picks, under 1.5 first-half goals at -192 odds and under 2.5 total goals at +120, are both solid plays that I would’ve felt incredibly confident in had this game taken place before the World Cup. The break makes me slightly less assured, but I still like our chances. For my final pick, give me no on the both teams to score prop at -122 odds. It’s time to get back to winning ways, for both CFC and us at The Pride of London.