Here are your betting guide and tips for the FA Cup tie between Chelsea and Manchester City
Even the most ardent Chelsea supporter wouldn’t have been surprised by the ultimate result of Thursday’s match against Man City, and most fans of the pride, myself included, were probably relatively pleased with the team’s performance.
I was particularly happy with the aggression and initiative shown by many of the Blues’ younger players who were brought on during the match. Carney Chukwuemeka, Lewis Hall, Omari Hutchinson, and Conor Gallagher all deserve more playing time after these cameos, in my opinion.
Denis Zakaria also made his case to be selected regularly in the starting XI, bringing solidity to this midfield that has been in desperate need of an enforcer for some time now. The Swiss international’s skill was also on full display when he danced through four opponents before making a cross-field pass that started an important Chelsea break.
Of course, it would have been better to have taken at least a single point from the contest, but there were still plenty of positives for Graham Potter and his squad. Luckily for the manager and his staff, the team will have an opportunity to avenge the defeat on Sunday morning when the Blues travel north for an FA Cup Round 3 tie against the Citizens.
This is already the third meeting between these two sides this season, which is pretty remarkable and incredibly unfortunate for the club from the capital and its supporters. The Manchurians’ ownership is still in pursuit of completing the legendary quadruple with Pep Guardiola at the helm, so there’s no doubt the Catalan tactician wants to advance deep into, and potentially win, all of the smaller domestic competitions in addition to the Premier League. And with Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, and countless other talented players at his disposal, I’d back him to do so.
I’m pretty disappointed in my performance on the previous betting guide. I felt confident that we would see a high-scoring match with end-to-end action featuring two struggling defenses. It was an entertaining affair overall but failed to deliver on the goals. I was fortunate to hit on the Manchester City moneyline bet with solid value, but I won’t have the same opportunity on Sunday.
The Citizens are favored at -320 odds on the 90’ moneyline, so I’ll probably stay away from that play and instead target something against the spread. Taking the Blues +1.5 at -135 feels pretty safe considering how well they played last time out. I just hope we get to see more of the youngsters who gave serious effort in their substitute appearances and nearly drew Chelsea level in the second half.
A second bet I like, especially for its value, is the both teams to score prop at -115 odds. We all know City will be looking to put on a show in front of their fans, so I’m fairly confident the home side will find the back of the net at least once during the match.
As for the Blues, they simply have to up their scoring output at some point, don’t they? They’ve only scored three times since November 6 and currently average the fewest EPL goals per game of any side in the top half of the table.
Multiple Chelsea shots striking the woodwork on Thursday were unlucky, particularly the one that came from Chukwuemeka, but I’m banking on the fact that at least a few of these will start trickling into the goal.
As I mentioned in the previous guide, this Man City defense is not as dominant as past iterations have been, so Potter should instruct his forwards to be direct and get shots on target. I anticipate Guardiola will deploy Stefan Ortega in net for the cup match again. Unless the German shot-stopper regenerates as prime Neuer for his fifth start of the season, I like the odds of this bet cashing.
Official odds (via DraftKings as of January 6)
Chelsea ML: +750
Manchester City ML: -320
Draw: +400
Over/Under: 2.5 (-170/+125)
My picks
It’s been a while since I’ve utilized DraftKings odds in a guide, but FanDuel’s three-way spread with round numbers is simply too infuriating to bet on. Here’s a free tip for all soccer bets, regardless of if they include the Blues or not; don’t ever interact with FanDuel’s three-way spreads. They’re cursed. Anyways, I’m taking Chelsea +1.5 after 90’ at -135 odds, as well as the both teams to score prop at -115.
For my final pick, I have to ride the Haaland anytime goalscorer prop again. City’s No. 9 should’ve found the back of the net on Thursday when Ilkay Gundogan played him into goal in the 38’. I doubt he’ll go two consecutive matches without scoring.
The biggest threat to this play is if Guardiola decides to give Julian Alvarez his first minutes since returning from the World Cup, but I anticipate the Man City manager will opt for the Norwegian, who’s still relatively fresh after resting during the six-week domestic hiatus. The value isn’t great at -175 odds, but Haaland is incredibly consistent.