Well Chelsea fans, we’re officially living inside the Paul Rudd meme. Who would’ve thought we’d be here right now? Not me, not us.
The Blues are back at the center of the footballing universe after spending nearly €300 million on new signings during the January transfer window, including €125m on Enzo Fernandez in arguably the most dramatic deadline day saga in recent memory. The club’s spree dwarfed the combined spending of multiple European leagues, so calling it unprecedented would be a colossal understatement. I’m not mad at Todd Boehly and the hierarchy, and I’m really unsure why fans of the other big six are, to be honest. Their billionaire owners could do the exact same thing, they simply lack the ambition and intelligence to do so.
Chelsea’s first opponent with its new recruits is a tricky one, though, in the shape of cross-town rivals Fulham. The Cottagers have long been the Blues’ personal whipping boys, but the previous meeting saw the home side victorious in a shocking 2-1 result at Craven Cottage. This upset took place barely two weeks ago, so there’s no doubt it will be fresh in the minds of every player in both dressing rooms. Revenge can be a strong motivating factor, especially for a team on the rise like CFC. I expect the pride of London to get its season back on track starting Friday.
I don’t like to agree with the oddsmakers, largely because I think they’re wrong most of the time, but they got the moneyline odds for this contest exactly right. Favoring Chelsea at -165 perfectly weighs the positives and negatives from the team’s most recent outings, while also taking into account the unknown impact of the numerous winter signings. I’ve noticed that our friends at FanDuel generally give serious weight to the home-field advantage, so this match taking place at the Bridge definitely shifts the odds in the Blues’ favor. I was rewarded for betting on the home team when these two sides met only a few weeks ago, and I think I’ll have to do the same again for Friday’s matchup. Especially considering the odds are better than -200, I really like Chels’ on the moneyline.
Selecting second and third picks for this match was more difficult than usual because I genuinely have no idea what Graham Potter’s first starting XI after the transfer window will look like. I imagine he’ll try to maintain the same shape utilized last time out against Liverpool, which shifted between a 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 depending on which team was in possession.
Even with this predicted attempt at continuity, there will probably be a settling-in period for the new arrivals that should last at least 45’. For this reason, I’m eyeing the second half to have the most goals prop at +110 odds. The statistics do actually substantiate this play, as 25 goals have been scored in the second half of Chelsea games this season, compared to only 18 in the first half. It’s always great when a plus-juice bet is supported by the numbers.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of February 1)
Chelsea ML: -165
Fulham ML: +470
Draw: +300
Over/Under: 2.5 (-110/-110)
My picks:
I can’t lie, it was nice to have a week off from watching matches while the transfer madness was going down, but I’m hyped for Friday. Supporting the Blues has felt like a chore for a solid portion of the campaign, so it’s nice to rediscover the passion that I normally feel for our beloved club. Having money on the line will only enhance the viewing experience.
I’m taking Chelsea ML and the second half to have the most goal prop for my first two plays, currently listed at -165 odds and +110 odds, respectively. I’m going to continue my trend of predicting players to score on their first appearance for the club with my final pick, even though it’s let me down in the past two guides. I have a lot of CFC newbies to choose from, but there’s only one correct answer, isn’t there? It has to be Enzo. Give me the Argentinian World Cup winner to find the back of the net at +650 odds. I can feel it, folks, this is the one that’s going to hit. Please remember that all odds are subject to change.