Chelsea failed to win their last league game against Everton at home, allowing Ellis Simms to score late in the game to secure a point for the Toffees, this has caused Blues fans to start rethinking what’s needed to get to the next level, and as usual, many of them have overcooked the analysis.
Kepa Arrizabalaga will take some blame for the second goal the Blues conceded in that game, as he got to the ball but couldn’t get it away. This, admittedly, is something the Spaniard has been guilty of several times. Edouard Mendy was Chelsea’s first choice at the beginning of the season but lost his place due to a mixture of bad form and injury. When Graham Potter walked through the door, Mendy was injured, so Arrizabalaga got the start. However Mendy at the time was not in particularly good form, so when the CFC No.1 began to light up the place with his performances, Potter stuck with him, and rightly so.
Chelsea fans have watched the former Bilbao man for four seasons, two of which he was the starter for the full season. He was average in his first season as a starter, and really poor in his second. He then lost his place to Mendy who comfortably outperformed him in both seasons the Senegal keeper was a starter, then came this season where Mendy started nine league games and lost his place to his colleague who has started 19 league games.
Mendy was also not good in the World Cup, and this has made fans call for him to be benched/sold, claiming he’s not good enough. A lot of the same fans said the same about Arrizabalaga before, but perhaps started to have a change of heart when he started performing really well this season, however, as is with football fandom, the wolves were out for Arrizabalaga again when he made some of the same mistakes they had seen him make in the past.
Can Chelsea challenge for major titles with this set of goalkeepers?
Yes. Of course, they can. Ben Forster thinks Arrizabalaga cannot be the No.1 for CFC after the goal he conceded to Ellis Simms. That is harsh because while you can agree the Spaniard should have done better, to say Arrizabalaga cannot be the guy for Potter’s side is ignoring many things, especially considering Arrizabalaga has been Chelsea’s best performer this season.
Many times the conversation around goalkeepers is usually unbalanced as many things are attributed to the goalkeeper that he has very little control over, and Forster would know this. Keepers are often judged by the number of goals they can keep out, but that is very difficult to judge. A goalkeeper can save 80 per cent of the shots he faces every game for a whole season and not keep a single clean sheet, because clean sheets are a function of many different things, as are goals allowed.
People often evaluate goalkeepers ignoring the state of the defenders in front of him, and the defensive structure of the team. If a team allows many shots on target every game, their keeper is likely not to keep many clean sheets, not because he’s not good, but because he is limited in how much of a game he can single-handedly influence. He can save all the shots faced in one game, but he can’t save all the shots faced in all games. A keeper’s good form often coincides with the form of the defenders in front of him, and his poor form would also coincide with the form of the defense, or the nature of the defensive structure. Of course sometimes, bad form is down to the keeper and him alone.
Bringing this back to Mendy and Arrizabalaga. Two keepers have mainly been between the stickers in the last three Premier League title winning teams. Alisson (Liverpool) and Ederson (Manchester City). In the 19/20 season, Alisson Becker won the league with Liverpool, saving 72% of the shots he faced, allowing an impressive 0.8 goals per game over 29 games, and keeping 13 clean sheets, clean sheets in 45% of his games. It may surprise you then, to know that the 19/20 is not even close to being Alisson’s best season for Liverpool as a goalkeeper.
Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed (PSxG+/-) is a metric that can be used to judge goalkeepers based on the quality of the shots they faced after the shot has been taken. This is markedly different from xG, as xG is determined pre-shot, post-shot xG means that if a player hits a shot from 30 yards but aims it at the top corner, while the xG of that shot may be as low as 0.02, the post shot xG may be as high as 0.94.
This is considered for keepers because wherever a shot is hit from, if it’s headed for the top corner, you have a low chance of saving it anyway, so you cannot be blamed for allowing it. However if the post-shot xG is relatively low, and the keeper allows the goal, the keeper is marked down. PSxG+/- is a relatively accurate way of judging goalkeepers in addition to save percentages, it highlights the quality of the shots the keeper has faced and checks if the keeper has been good considering the shots he’s faced. Naturally the higher this number is on the positive scale, the better for the goalkeeper rating wise.
In 29 games, Alisson’s PSxG+/- was -2.3, which means that the Brazilian let in 2.3 goals more than he was expected to, considering the shots he faced. In addition to that, he made two errors leading to shots and one error leading to goal. In no other Premier League season has Alisson recorded a negative PSxG+/- score. Yet, he has not won the league in any other season, despite performing significantly better in all of those seasons.
Ederson last season (21/22), won the league with Manchester City (for the fourth time), saving 70% of the shots he faced, allowing an incredible 0.7 goals per game over 37 games, and keeping 20 clean sheets, clean sheets in 54% of his games. Yes, you guessed right, that was also not Ederson’s best performance as a goalkeeper for Manchester City, as he scored -0.3 in PSxG+/-.
What’s the point? The keeper accounts for very little in title races, and keepers on title winning teams just need to be competent, consistent and occasionally make big saves. This is because title winning campaigns are decided more by the consistency of the outfielders and forwards, and less by the “stellar” performances of their goalkeepers.
Last season, Mendy finished 3rd with Chelsea, saving 70% of the shots he faced, allowing 0.9 goals per game over 34 games, and keeping 14 clean sheets, clean sheets in 41% of his games. Mendy recorded a PSxG+/- score of -1.6, but remember that Alisson recorded -2.3 when he won the league.
Mendy and Ederson have matched themselves in save percentage in the last two completed Premier League seasons. In fact, in the 2020-21 season, Mendy and Ederson allowed 0.8 goals per game each.
Yes, shot-stopping is not all these keepers are in their teams for, distribution is also a big part of it. Ederson is the clear leader in this regard, as over the past two completed campaigns he has averaged 54% long ball accuracy and completed 66% of his chipped passes. Mendy comes in second with 46% long ball accuracy, completing 60% of his chipped passes, and Alisson is a close third matching Mendy in long ball accuracy, but completing 58% of his chipped passes. There is no reason Chelsea cannot win the league with Mendy between the sticks, his performances are consistent, his distribution is superb, and he makes big saves regularly enough that you can count on him to be decider in the odd game where you need your keeper to save you.
‘Well what about Arrizabalaga – surely he should be sold?’. No, he shouldn’t. This season the Spanish international has been excellent. At 77.8% he boasts a higher save rate than anyone else in the league. He ranks higher than the current league leader’s goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, who boasts a 73.3% save rate. Not only that, the Spaniard has recorded an incredible PSxG+/- score of +5.3. The only goalkeeper better in that is Alisson Becker with a whopping +10.2. Arrizabalaga has prevented more than five goals than he was expected to. Ederson, meanwhile, has been really poor this season, saving 59% of his shots and recording a PSxG+/- score of -4.1. Despite Ederson’s poor form, he has allowed 0.9 goals per game and is still well in contention to win the league.
From 2020/21 until this moment Chelsea’s stoppers have been the most consistent players for the team, if Chelsea is not challenging for the league, it’s most definitely not because of the goalkeepers. The better question is, can the Blues win the league with [insert consistently starting outfielder/forward here]? The goalkeepers are more than capable of helping the Blues to a title-winning campaign.
Pete O’Rourke of the Football Insider reports that CFC is considering promoting American ‘keeper Gabriel Slonina to the senior team if they cannot agree contract terms with Mendy. No one knows if Slonina is ready to make the step up, but Mendy and Slonina cannot be compared in terms of competence, experience or value to the team. Slonina is tabled for a loan as it is, and that is the best course for the American. His development will stagnate if he sits behind Arrizabalaga for a whole season anyway.
Ederson is currently earning £100k/week according to Capology, Alisson is earning £150k/week, Mendy is earning £55k/week, when you consider how well Mendy has performed relative to the two those two and every other keeper in the league, £100k/w is not too much for Mendy to ask for, though no one knows what he’s asking for, especially when you consider that his colleague, Arrizabalaga is earning £150k/week as well. Todd Boehly is better off extending Mendy to at least 100k/week, because the Blues would be in a much worse position if they let Mendy go and make do with an Arrizabalaga-Slonina goalkeeping pair.