Chelsea sacked Graham Potter on the night of April 2, 2023, and that now makes it two managerial sackings this month by the 3rd of the month. Chelsea has been in abysmal form for the past 5-6 months, and many fans had gotten irate long before the Aston Villa game. Chelsea fans have clamored for a long-term manager for a long time and they thought the arrival of new owner Todd Boehly would finally make that a reality. Potter was appointed as manager on the 7th of September 2022 and was handed a five-year contract where he was to earn 12 million/year. As of the morning of the 3rd of April 2023, Potter has been relieved of his duties as manager, but did Boehly make a mistake by sacking him?
The American made it clear with his actions and his words that he wanted to hire a manager and keep him for the long term. The CFC chief said he’d judge Potter in years, not games or months. However, there were many things the LA Dodgers owner had done earlier in his reign that were ill-advised. Boehly sacked Thomas Tuchel on the September 7, after spending more than £270 million on signings for the German.
This decision, as annoyed as the fans were with it, wasn’t in and of itself the issue. The main issue was Boehly’s decision to invest as much as he did into Potter and his staff. Making the latter one of the highest-paid managers in the league was not necessary, and putting him on for five years was silly. Boehly acted not like a hyper-successful businessman but like an excited little boy.
The first sign of trouble that he might have made a mistake, was the fact that Chelsea failed to compete against any of the sides that they usually compete with. Potter’s men were swatted aside by Manchester City in the League Cup and FA Cup third rounds. There was also a loss to Manchester City again in the league. That made it three games against City without scoring while conceding seven in total. CFC played three crucial games before the World Cup: Brighton and Hove Albion, third-placed Newcastle United at the time, and league leaders Arsenal.
The Blues not only lost all three, but they also conceded 6.62 expected goals against (xGA) and created 1.72 expected goals (xG) combined across all three games. Chelsea also conceded six goals and scored one across those games. That then made it Brighton, Arsenal, Newcastle United, and Man City, that the west London outfit lost games again while not competing.
The second sign was how fast the team were falling down the table. CFC were fifth when Potter walked through the door on his way in where the Blues had gathered 10 points from 6 games (1.67 points per game), which was considered poor at the time. Potter was only able to gather 28 points from the next 22 league games (1.27). It gets worse as there were no signs things would get better. The underlying numbers showed that they were exactly where they were expected to be based on their performances. Potter leaves with Chels‘ in 11th place.
The underlying numbers showed the side were 11th for points scored since Potter took over, joint 12th for games won, 16th for goals scored, 4th for goals conceded, 9th for xG and 6th for xGA. The goals against and xGA numbers look much better than everything else, but those numbers in and of themselves weren’t impressive numbers. Under Potter’s reign, the west London club averaged 1.4 xG across the 22 league games he managed, and 1.2 xGA on average in that time. That is alarmingly poor, especially when you considered that his 2021/22 Brighton side did very similar numbers (1.3 xG, 1.24 xGA) across 38 games.
With just these few things highlighted, it’s clear that Boehly in fact did make a mistake. Yet it wasn’t in sacking him at the time he did, it was in keeping the Englishman on as long as he did.