Chelsea has been unbelievably bad in the final third and in front of goal. The West London club’s scoring woes are especially glaring considering that they had their most prolific season in the league and in all competitions last season. The Blues scored 119 goals in 63 games in all competitions last season. In the league, they scored 76 goals, the most since the 2016-17 title-winning season (85).
This season they have scored 36 league goals in the league, and 48 goals in 47 games in all competitions. The drop from 1.9 goals per game last season to 1.02 goals per game this season has left many baffled, especially considering many of the players that featured last season are still at the club. Goals scored can be impacted by many things, so often focusing on the league, let’s take a look at how bad this season has actually been attacking-wise (maybe they’ve just been unlucky).
Chelsea scored two goals per game last season over 38 games. This season that has been halved to 1.03 goals per game. The Blues created 2.5 big chances per game either through skill or opposition errors last season, this season it’s down to 1.8. The big chance numbers are especially embarrassing considering the teams that have better creation numbers than they do.
In terms of expected numbers, Chelsea created 1.82 xG per game last season. These numbers were good enough to rank them 3rd in the league by Game Week 38 in those metrics, and eventually in the league table in points accrued.
Thomas Tuchel’s 2021-22 Blues also scored 74 points, again the most since the last title-winning season (93). This season those numbers have plummeted as well, creating 1.34 xG per game, numbers good enough to put the Blues 10th in those metrics. In terms of points scored, (now) Lampard’s men are 11th (43 points), sitting eight points behind Fulham in 10th place, with a game in hand.
The drop-off is reflected in every metric you look at. There are about nine metrics that more directly impact goal scoring. According to FBRef, Shot taking dropped 20% to 12.3 per 90 minutes, xG per game, according to FBRef, dropped 25% to 1.26 xG per 90, shots on target per 90 dropped 26% to 3.89 per 90, completed passes into the penalty area dropped 17% to 9.57 and carries into the penalty area dropped 15% to 5.4 per 90.
This is without even mentioning the glaring metrics like Shot-Creating Actions per 90, which dropped 22% to 21.9, and Goal-Creating Actions per 90 which dropped 47% per 90 to 1.89. In key metrics, the FA Cup finalists dropped significantly. Big chances created per game also dropped 28%.
With how poorly the team has performed, it is difficult to pinpoint the reason for this massive drop-off. One glaring factor would be the change of managerial personnel from the beginning of the season till now. This is a reason, but it doesn’t completely explain the disparity in numbers. Chelsea has had four different men in the dugout this season: Thomas Tuchel (6 league games managed), Graham Potter (22 games), Bruno Saltor (1 game), and Frank Lampard (6 games managed).
These four men have combined for 11 Premier League wins so far in the 2022/23 season. With Potter managing the bulk of games this season, a lot of the attacking impotence can be traced to him.
Personnel and team selection is another factor. It is important to note that Chelsea lost key players like Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen to free transfers, Jorginho to Arsenal in the winter transfer window, and Romelu Lukaku to Inter Milan in a loan deal. Other than that, all managers concerned this season have made team selections that have not helped the team many times.
Hakim Ziyech is one player that was perhaps under-utilized this season, considering his impact last season. With a requirement of playing one-third of the available league minutes, Ziyech ranked 16th for minutes played, 7th for total Shot-Creating Actions (67), and first for Shot-Creating Actions per 90 (4.57).
Creating shots is the first step to shooting at goal and scoring, and the Moroccan played a significant role in shot creation, despite not playing that many minutes last season. Ziyech has been heavily criticized in his time at Chelsea, however, the former Ajax star has been consistent in the things he has been able to control. He also ranked 9th for Goal-Creating Actions (GCA) and 6th for Goal-Creating Actions per 90.
Ziyech was significant offensively in more obvious ways too. Despite playing 37% of available league minutes, he ranked 2nd for total big chances created (9) and a distant first for big chances created per 90 (0.61). Ziyech alone explains a significant portion of Chelsea’s drop-off in attacking numbers.
In Passes into the penalty area last season, Ziyech ranked 6th in total and 3rd per 90 minutes. The Chelsea forward contributed his fair share to ball progression in carries, ranking 4th for total carries into the penalty area (20), and 3rd for carries into the penalty box per 90 (1.36). No, he didn’t play a key role in the team last season, but his contributions relative to the minutes he played, indicate that he was a significant part of the Blues’ success attacking-wise.
You then wonder why Ziyech has featured even less this season. With the same minutes’ requirements, Ziyech would not even make the cut, as he has only played 648 minutes this season, starting just six games out of an available 35.
It’s fine if managers don’t want to play him, but his extreme exclusion from the team has impacted the 2021 European Champions negatively. This is especially damning when you consider that, despite playing less than 30% of minutes this season so far, Ziyech leads the team in big chances created (6), tied with Raheem Sterling who has played 168% more minutes than the Morocco vice captain.
Goals are a function of chances, and for one to expect players in the team to score goals even at a semi-regular rate, the means to create chances have to be put in place first. It’s clear, and strange, that neither Thomas Tuchel, Graham Potter, or Frank Lampard has thought it necessary to give Ziyech a bigger role, but the role the former Twente forward played is not being played by anyone else in his absence, and it’s obvious.
Benoit Badiashile is another baffling team selection error. This error dates back to February 3, 2023 when Chelsea selected three new players for the Champions League roster. They had ready-made space for two and had to create space for the third by de-registering Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Enzo Fernandez, Joao Felix, and Mykhailo Mudryk were selected as the new registrants, but Badiashile was left out.
“You can only register three. Someone had to miss out”, would be a valid talking point if none of the players had played before the selection. Badiashile had come in and looked completely in control, helping Chelsea to three consecutive clean sheets for only the second time this season. All anyone had seen of Mudryk was a 15-minute cameo where he had looked electric against Liverpool and missed two big chances.
The Blues trusted their centerback cast of Thiago Silva, Kalidou Koulibaly, Trevoh Chalobah, and Wesley Fofana. Before long Fofana and Silva were injured, leaving Potter and later Lampard, to play Marc Cucurella at Left centerback, a decision that Chelsea’s opponents enjoyed a lot.
Antonio Rudiger and Thiago Silva led Tuchel’s Blues last season in total passes into the final third, and both ranked in the top five for passes into the final third per 90, per FBRef. This season centerbacks aren’t leading in total passes into the final third, and the only centerback that ranks in the top five Chelsea players for passes into the final third per 90, is Badiashile.
The France international has shown his passing range since he’s come into the side and if the centerback pairing was selected on merit, the former Monaco defender should have started a lot more than 10 league games so far. Some claimed that Marc Cucurella started some league games over Badiashile to prepare Cucurella for upcoming Champions League games, which is the kind of situation clubs get into when they make dumb decisions such as leaving Badiashile out of the Champions League squad. Getting the ball to the final third means getting the ball to forwards, wingbacks, or strikers who can then find ways of developing attacks.
Badiashile arrived in January, but since he made his debut he has shown that he should be starting, and he wasn’t. No doubt, the constantly changing environment and coaching staff have impacted the managers decision to build some consistency, but the managers did not help themselves with who they consistently decided to leave out of lineups, especially Potter, who willingly left out Badiashile based on 15 minutes of electricity.