Chelsea: Christensen exemplifies the rarity of high-value academy grads
By George Perry
Chelsea do not have many “buy low, sell high” transfer success stories. This becomes part of the often shallow criticism of their transfer and development pipeline.
A club’s transfer balance usually only accounts for the expenditures on new players and the income from sales. Chelsea flirted with being in the black for over the course of Antonio Conte’s first season, a dubious accomplishment given Conte’s continued demand for specific players. Manchester City are running four times the transfer deficit as Chelsea to go along with their 25-point gap over the Blues.
A new study from CIES Football Observatory takes a more individual perspective on the transfer balance. They examined which players had the greatest increase in transfer value while at their current club. Chelsea had more ex-players than current Blues on the list, with only Eden Hazard and Andreas Christensen among the top 50.
Eden Hazard’s transfer value has more than tripled since arriving at Chelsea. The Blues bought him from Lille for £32 million, and CIES estimates he is now worth £104 million. This puts him at 19th on the list. Andreas Christensen comes in at 48th, mainly because he represents pure profit for the Blues as an Academy graduate. CIES estimates his transfer value at £47 million.
Fourteen players on the list – including six of the top 10 – came up through their club’s academy. These players are invaluable for their clubs. Beyond their financial returns when the day comes to sell, they represent continuity, pride and a culture of success. The more such players a club have, the better their financial, institutional and footballing stability.
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However, this conversation must address the dogs that don’t bark. Or, in this case, the Academy players who do not become Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford or Andreas Christensen. Add to them the low-cost purchases who do not turn into Dele Alli, Ciro Immobile or Cesar Azpilicueta (who somehow did not make the CIES list).
No matter how strong your youth recruiting and player development systems are, the odds are against your club having multiple players on these trajectories. Finding such players, developing their potential and retaining them until they appreciate to £50 million above what you paid are three distinct challenges. Few clubs have the resources and prestige for any one of these elements. As a result, only three clubs had multiple players on the list: Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Manchester United had two each.
Chelsea receive endless criticism for the expansive loan army and the highly successful Academy that did not produce any first-team regulars between John Terry and Andreas Christensen. The players from the golden generation of Chelsea’s academy are just now starting to make their way in top-tier football.
A few will pay off as Blues. Some will be rued as more Salah’s and de Bruyne’s who got away. But most of them will simply be in the mass of footballers good enough to play in the “big five” leagues, but not feature on a CIES Football Observatory weekly post. That is still a massive accomplishment for those players and for Chelsea’s academy.
Chelsea also add other forms of value to mid-career players. Marcos Alonso will probably never have a transfer value high enough to land on this list. But because of Chelsea and Antonio Conte, he was called up for Spain’s national team for the first time, albeit for a friendly. Likewise, Willy Caballero reports to Argentina this week for the first time since 2014.
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So while two former Blues – Mohamed Salah and Kevin de Bruyne – are above Eden Hazard on the CIES list, and Romelu Lukaku is between Hazard and Christensen, Chelsea do not deserve much criticism for these outcomes. The sure things always reveal themselves in hindsight.