In a sports world full of skewed opinion, there is one place where we can look for certainty: Betting lines
Sports books don’t suffer from fanatic bias or knee jerk reactions to crazy results. The people who are employed to come up with betting lines are only interested in 1 thing – profitability. This past summer before the World Cup started, Chelsea had just sold David Luiz, and while we all waited for the Diego Costa domino to fall I heard a crazy rumor, an impossible rumor.
I heard that Jose Mourinho was going to sign Cesc Fabregas from Barcelona. The same Cesc whose heart belongs to Arsenal, the same Cesc who may or may not have said he would never play for Chelsea. And knowing all this I thought to myself what a ridiculous rumor.
More from The Pride of London
- Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea player ratings: Abysmal, reckless, wasteful
- Bournemouth 0-0 Chelsea: 3 Blues talking points
- Bournemouth vs Chelsea: 1 Blue Mauricio Pochettino should drop
- Bournemouth vs Chelsea: 3 Blues who must start
- Predicted Chelsea lineup vs Bournemouth: Palmer starts in 4-2-3-1
Then I saw the one thing that convinced me that this was legitimate. Skybet in the UK, updated their betting line for who would sign Fabregas and there was Chelsea, at the top of the list at -300, meaning that you’d have to wager three to win back four (a profit of 1 unit). At that point you may as well have preordered your #4 jersey because when a result is likely to occur the odds drop very low, so as not to affect a sports book’s profit margins.
So with this in mind as a Chelsea fan, there is one thing at the moment which brings me the most comfort; The Blues are now -600 to win the Barclay’s Premier League, which brings us to our first pick:
Chelsea vs. West Brom
By Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK (DSC01447) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia CommonsThis is a horrible spot for the Baggies. The aforementioned Spanish duo have had 2 weeks to rest and recuperate, which means when Saturday arrives you can expect Diego Costa to be foaming at the mouth. Mou and the boys will want to make quick work or West Brom ahead of a big mid week clash with Schalke. Look for Chelsea to win handily and Costa to bag one – pun intended
Pick: Chelsea wins + Diego Costa scores (-125)
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Having watched Arsenal for the past few seasons they have trouble against the big teams in the marquee fixtures. They have only won once in the last 11 meetings against Man United. There will be tons of question marks for both sides. Will David De Gea, Angel Di Maria and Danny Welbeck be fit? If they do play, how effective can they be? But there is one player who is guaranteed to start and having just achieved his 100th cap for England and scoring against both Slovenia and Scotland, Wayne Rooney will be raring to go for this one. Roo is tied for 1st all time with Thierry Henry having each scored 8 Premier League goals in this fixture. I see him taking sole ownership on Saturday.
Pick: Wayne Rooney to score anytime (+190)
Stoke City vs. Burnley
RANDOM FACT OF THE WEEK: QPR Gaffer Harry Redknapp is Frank Lampard’s uncle
I like Stoke City. I think they have the ability to make a run this season to a top 10 finish in the Premier League. They stumbled early on but have not suffered because many teams have done the same. The Potters have already gone to White Hart Lane and the Etihad and won this season. Time for them to build on these results and start beating the lower clubs in the Premier League. I think they get the job done here.
Pick: Stoke City (-140)
Aston Villa vs. Southampton
For all their flaws going forward, Villa don’t concede many goals at the back. Similarly, Southampton have only allowed 5 goals in 11 EPL matches to date. Only Bayern Munich (3) and Juventus (4) have allowed fewer thus far in their respective domestic competitions. When two stingy teams like this meet it provides a unique opportunity to aim for a bigger payout.
Pick: Under 1.5 goals (+225)
Let’s get back on track
Last week’s record: 1-3 (-1.95 units)