Premier League Picks – Matchday 23

Let’s be honest. There’s only one Premier League game we all care to discuss, so let’s not dally.

Chelsea vs Man City

Aug 10, 2013; Washington, DC, USA; Chelsea midfielder Frank Lampard (8) looks down towards the ball during the second half against AS Roma at RFK Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Frederiksen-USA TODAY Sports

Pick any headline you desire for this one: Lampard returns to Stamford Bridge in enemy colors. Defending champions Man City face a must win versus the league leaders. Chelsea have a golden opportunity to edge closer to a major trophy. They are all relevant.

Starting with the latter, big spenders Chelsea have not collected any hardware since the 2013 Europa League and for a team with their budget and ambition, that’s hardly anything to write home about. To be Super Frank (teehee), they are still living off of the 2012 Champions League.

When Jose Mourinho returned to West London, it was a message to Chelsea fans that the organizational stability they yearned for was now the clear objective. They hired the manager everyone wanted and provided him the keys to build the dynasty; the type of reign that Sir Alex had with United, that Guardiola was having with Barcelona and perhaps even what Ancelotti is attempting with Real Madrid as we speak.

But dynasties are only legitimized by winning major competitions. And Chelsea have taken a crucial step, by making the Capital One Cup Final. It’s the first chance at hardware this season and provides momentum for them heading into the most important part of their season. But it has come at a price.

Cesc Fabregas left the pitch early on Tuesday night against Liverpool, and Diego Costa has been charged with violent conduct for his stomp on Emre Can. Furthermore the Blues first team played 120 minutes of football just 4 days before they face the defending Champions who will be at their most desperate.

So Chelsea can expect to be leggy and undermanned, however they are 10-0-0 in league play at home and have outscored their guests 24-3. Another way to view this is that regardless of who the Premier League opponent has been that comes to Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have basically turned them into QPR. With Thibaut Courtois looking unbeatable in goal, one wonders how they can be beat, even if outplayed, which they were for most of the two legs against Liverpool.

And Man City don’t look capable of outplaying anyone at the moment. In fact they look as vulnerable as we’ve seen them in the past 2 seasons.

Random Footy Fact: Manchester City have not won an away game without Yaya Toure since January 2013

With the Cote D’Ivoire advancing to the knockout stages of AFCON, Yaya Toure and Bony will not be available once again. David Silva may have it all to do on his own and will most likely have Ramires and Matic in his hip pocket the entire game. Aguero has not found his form since returning from injury, but has haunted Chelsea ever since his Atleti days. In 10 career appearances vs Chelsea Kun has scored 5 times and tallied 2 assists.

Conversely, no Costa or Fabregas will leave most of the burden on Eden Hazard which bodes well for the Citizens. In 8 career games against City, Hazard has never scored and only notched 1 assist. I attribute this lack of success to Pablo Zabaleta, Man City’s wonderful right back who often man marks Eden Hazard to great effect and nullifies him.

With both teams missing key weapons, and the high stakes of this match it’s more likely to be a tight encounter as oppose to an open one. I have a gut feeling that Jose may elect to play John Mikel Obi next to Matic. And we all know what that means…

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-105) Draw (+275)

Other picks for this weekend:

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

I’ll go back to my stock market analogy for this one. The Eagles are trending up and the Toffees are in turmoil. You definitely want your money in a stable company.

Pick: Crystal Palace Draw No Bet (+105)

West Brom vs. Tottenham

Last matchday the Baggies rescued this column by holding Everton. Tottenham, who booked their own ticket to the Wembley final, now face the unenviable task of facing a Pulis side who scrap and claw. Once again I expect them to keep a much more talented side at bay to keep their Premier League survival hopes alive.

Pick: Draw (+225)

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa

Do you think Arsenal will win? So do I. Do you think Villa will be able to score? What a coincidence, me neither.