Premier League Picks – Matchday 31

Forgive the hiatus of this weekly column. After the Champions League it took me a few weeks to climb out of the Arsenal trap – If I had a nickel for every time I said I wasn’t going to fall into it again…

RANDOM FOOTY FACT:             Benfica, Bayern Munich and Juventus have all lost 5 European Cup/ Champions League Finals

As far as the Champions League is concerned, after watching what has transpired in world football over the past few weeks, I would pick Barcelona to win the whole shebang and at +250 they seem great value. 

But that’s not for a couple of weeks. This weekend’s Premier League action sees off the last international break of the season. It’s the home stretch for the EPL Title race and the 4 Champions League places. No game on the board signifies this more than Saturday’s early kickoff.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Jul 30, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Liverpool FC forward Raheem Sterling (31) scores a goal in front of Manchester City FC defender Micah Richards (2) during the second half of a game at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Undermanned Liverpool, can’t afford to drop any more points, but will be without Gerrard and Skrtel (suspension) while Daniel Sturridge may play through injury. It also won’t help the Reds’ state of mind that Raheem Sterling has rejected their latest offer. Prior to Sturridge’s return, it was Sterling who was playing up top in the 3-4-3 and he was giving defenders nightmares. Should he be back up top again he may find space in behind Mertesacker and Koscielny. That being said Arsenal are in tremendous form domestically, having won 6 straight league matches. Aesthetically this will be fantastic to watch, I expect Arsenal to keep the good times rolling.

Pick: Arsenal (+120)

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa

The top race 4 was very interesting a few weeks ago. But then United made easy work of Tottenham and Liverpool, and have given themselves breathing room. The only way for them to fall out of the Champions League is to drop points, and one would not expect that to happen against Villa. It’s more likely that United coast through this one before the Manchester Derby.

Pick: United -1.5 goals (Even)

Crystal Palace vs. Man City

Man City may quite possibly be 4th place in the table by the time this game kicks off on Monday night. If that doesn’t cause enough anxiety for the defending champions, the Eagles just might. Pardew’s men are secure in the standings and have no reason but to go for the win and put a show on for their home fans, who may just be the loudest in the EPL. That should make this match very entertaining. Palace will look to use their speedy wingers, Bolasie in particular, to exploit the gaps left when the City fullbacks bomb forward. Can’t say an upset would surprise me, but I expect the total to go over in any case.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-140)

May 25, 2013; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Borussia Dortmund player Marco Reus (left) passes the ball away from Bayern Munich player Javier Martinez during the Champions League final at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Groothuis/Witters Sport via USA TODAY Sports

Bundesliga Special: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich

Off to Germany for Der Klassiker. Bayern sit comfortably atop the standings, and quite frankly look disinterested. They’ve wrapped up the Bundesliga and need to get their ducks in a row for the Champions League. What’s troublesome for them is that Arjen Robben and David Alaba will miss the better part of the next 2 months with injury and Frank Ribery is also a question mark for this game. They are just not the same team without them. Dortmund may not have what it takes to climb back into the Champions League, but they can pick off a Bayern squad, who coming off an international break may just be looking to hit the reset button.

Pick: Dortmund (+270)

Last Matchday’s record: 0-4 (-4.1 units)

Overall: 32-35 (+2.1 units)

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