Welcome to this season’s Premier League Picks column. We will also be throwing in the occasional Champions League picks column, as well as sprinkling in the odd selections from Europe’s other major domestic competitions.
DISCLAIMER: THIS COLUMN IS FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Here’s how it works. I provide my picks for a handful of games each week with the aim to win 1 unit per match on every favorite, and risk 1 unit on every underdog (unless otherwise specified).
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If a line has the “-” sign this is a favorite. If the betting line on a match is -150, one must risk 1.5 units to win back 2.5, a profit of 1.
If a line has the “+” sign this is an underdog. If the line is +150, risking 1 unit will yield a return of 2.5 if victorious, a profit of 1.5 or 150%.
Confused? Great. Don’t worry you’ll grasp it shortly
My record will be kept up to date and posted for all to see throughout the campaign, which is why I like having this platform, because I get to be accountable for my predictions. If I poop the bed it will be there for all see. What you will not see is the aftermath – me curled up crying in the fetal position on my bathroom floor…Right then, let’s have some picks shall we.
Aston Villa v Manchester United
United played horribly and still won their home opener. As long as they can keep Darmian on the pitch for 90 minutes they should keep a clean sheet against a limited Villa attack. They will dominate possession and carve out at least a couple of good chances which should see them through.
Pick: United (-160)
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West Ham v. Leicester
I get it Cockneys, Sunday’s victory was huge, but this is going overboard. This is West Ham’s final season at the Boleyn ground and the home fans will be rowdy for this one. The Hammers rope-a-doped me last week. Something tells me they got knocked out of the Europa League on purpose. I’m not sold on the Foxes just yet, especially with the Tinkerman Ranieri at the helm while I am convinced by Bilic and his attacking mentality. West Ham will be fun to watch and perhaps be the best value play all season. I wonder if they’ll start 16-year-old Reece Oxford again?
Pick: West Ham (+140)
Manchester City v. Chelsea
Jose Mourinho does not lose these matches. Since his return to Chelsea Mou has not lost a single premier league game to City, United, Arsenal or Liverpool.
He sets up the Blues to counter attack, Ramires usually comes in for Oscar and if he doesn’t nick it 1-0, it winds up as a 0-0 or 1-1 at worst. But Chelsea are not up to it at the moment. The defense is dodgy, Fabregas is not magic and Hazard, aside from the preseason goal against Barcelona, has been a non-factor thus far.
Chelsea are not fit and City will get them this time. Begovic is not the shot stopper that Courtois is, and if Chelsea sit back as expected, City will wear them down. I said last week that Man City will break Chelsea’s mark of 103 goals in a season. I have no reason to back off that claim.
Pick: City (+110)
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Tuesday Champions League Special: Basel v. Maccabi Tel Aviv
RANDOM FOOT FACT Basel have won Switzerland’s last 6 domestic titles
22 of the 32 teams that will be in this year’s Champions League group stage have been decided. 20 teams will play a home and away playoff leg over the next couple of weeks to decide the remaining 10 spots. Swiss Champions Basel have been one of those teams like Sevilla over the past few years – a punter’s best friend.
The general public is pretty much unaware of their existence but they are stock piled with good players and a winning style of attractive football. A couple of seasons ago they were lovingly even given the nickname “Basel-ona”and it would be hard imagining a Champions League without them. They play the first leg against Tel Aviv at home this Tuesday and will surely get the job done without much difficulty.
Pick: Basel (-180)
Last Week’s record: 1-4 (-4.25 units)
Anyone heeding my advice? Anyone got other good picks? Sound off in the comments below!
Next: The Anti-Chelsea FC Conspiracy Resumes