As Chelsea FC enter a packed December, let’s evaluate their current position and discuss their realistic prospects.
We are 13 games into the season and Jose Mourinho’s men are still rooted to the bottom-half of the Barclays Premier League table, 12 points away from Arsenal in fourth.
It has been an unprecedented start for Jose Mourinho, who has lost seven league games in a season for the first time in his career.
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Historically, no team has ever managed to finish in the top five having accumulated just 11 points from the first 12 games of the season, but does that mean it’s all doom and gloom for Chelsea from here on in?
A statistician would probably answer that question with a resounding “yes”; however, when one begins to deconstruct the math behind the standings, the answer isn’t quite as straightforward.
Chelsea currently sit in 15th place with 14 points in the league that includes seven total losses and two draws. Chelsea’s longest winning streak last season was five matches, but the average winning streak was somewhere between three to four matches with those runs often being followed by a draw.
When considering last season’s Manchester United, that team finished in fourth with eight losses and ten draws. Using this as a benchmark, simple calculation reveals that Chelsea have a total of 11 points to spare for the remainder of this season if they wish to qualify for next season’s Champions League competition.
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Given that Chelsea have 25 more games left, if the team can put together those four-game winning streaks (followed by a draw) until the end of the season, it would result in just ten total points dropped. The Blues could still finish in fourth place or possibly higher in the table should this be the case.
If we were to be realistic, however, Chelsea will not go unbeaten until the end of the season. Yet, based on last season’s standings, Chelsea would be able to sustain two more losses (6 points) and still be able to achieve a top four spot in the league.
Yes, it won’t be nearly as easy as it sounds, and odds are Chelsea do fail to qualify for Europe for the first time in over a decade, but with the players that this squad possesses combined with the club’s ability to strengthen in the January transfer window, if there was ever a team that could defy the odds, this would be it.
Next: Chelsea FC Can Still Finish Top Four – Jose Mourinho
What do you think Chelsea’s realistic targets are? Top four? The Premier League crown? Let us know in the comments below!