Chelsea FC host Porto as both teams look to secure their Champions League progression, but what scenarios would result in the Blues qualifying?
| Club | Played | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Chelsea FC | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Dynamo Kiev | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Maccabi Tel-Aviv | 5 | -14 | 0 |
The above table shows how things currently stand in Group G. As you can see, Chelsea and Porto are tied at the top of the table with 10 points each. However, the Portuguese outfit occupy the top spot by virtue of UEFA’s tie-breaking rules for this tournament. Similar to Spain’s La Liga, teams are sub-sorted on a head-to-head basis and given that the Blues lost to Porto, Julen Lopetegui’s side get the edge.
Dynamo Kiev welcome Maccabi Tel-Aviv in tonight’s other fixture and the result of that contest will directly affect both Chelsea and Porto’s chances of qualifying, so let’s break down each viable scenario.
The staticians among us will point out that there are a total of nine possible result-combinations from both fixtures (3C1 multiplied by 3C1 for the nerds out there). However, given the points gap between Dynamo, Maccabi and the top two spots, we can disregard a few of them.
1. Dynamo Kiev fail to win
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Should Dynamo fail to get the full three points at the Olympic Stadium this evening, both Chelsea and Porto will progress no matter the result of their clash.
A win for Maccabi will leave Dynamo unchanged on eight points and Maccabi still in fourth place with three points, both less that the top two’s current tally of 10. Meanwhile, a draw would be close but no cigar for the Ukrainians, who would fall short by at least one point.
However, Chelsea would need to beat Porto if they were to finish in the top spot.
Caveat: Maccabi are awful and it would take a minor miracle for them to take anything from this contest.
2. Dynamo Kiev win and Chelsea win
The Dynamo win would leave them on 11 points, greater than Chelsea’s current total of 10. However, a Chelsea win would push them to 13 points and thus the Blues would not only qualify, but they would progress as group winners. Porto, meanwhile, would drop from first place to the Europa League-bound third spot. Here is how things would stand should this pan out.
| Club | Played | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea FC | 6 | 13 |
| Dynamo Kiev | 6 | 11 |
| FC Porto | 6 | 10 |
| Maccabi Tel-Aviv | 6 | 0 |
3. Dynamo Kiev win and Porto win
Similarly, Dynamo would be on 11 points but Porto would be the group winners with 13 points. Take the table that results from scenario number two and swap Chelsea and Porto around. The Blues would be the ones condemned to Thursday nights in this case.
Where’s Rafa Benitez when you need him?
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4. Dynamo Kiev win but Chelsea and Porto draw
This is a real sh*tshow of a situation. Dynamo would be on 11 points but the draw at Stamford Bridge would also leave Porto and Chelsea on the same. There would be a three-way tie for the two qualification spots. Of course, UEFA have made provisions for such a situation and this is how the positioning would be determined.
The three teams would initially be sorted based on their results against each other. These results can be seen below.
| Dynamo Kiev | 2 | 2 | FC Porto |
| FC Porto | 2 | 1 | Chelsea FC |
| Dynamo Kiev | 0 | 0 | Chelsea FC |
| Chelsea FC | 2 | 1 | Dynamo Kiev |
| Porto | 0 | 2 | Dynamo Kiev |
| Chelsea FC | X | X | FC Porto |
This would leave everybody on five points. Hence the clubs would then have to be sub-sub-sorted on goal difference within this mini-league.
| Club | Played | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kiev | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Chelsea FC | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| FC Porto | 4 | 5 | -1 |
Dynamo have already fulfilled their quota of games against Chelsea and Porto, hence they are locked in with four points and a goal difference of one.
With Chelsea and Porto drawing, they would also increase to five points but their goal difference would remain unchanged within this mini-league. Consequently, Porto’s two-goal loss against Dynamo would come back to haunt them as they would be sentenced to the Europa League while the Blues go through in second place.
Next: Chelsea FC Take On Porto: Team News, Times, TV
Cheers for sticking with me through that. The overriding sentiment is that Chelsea cannot lose tonight. While this is usually an easy task for the Blues, Porto know that in all likelihood they would need a win and thus they will be charging at the West Londoners. With Chelsea displaying a less than sturdy defence so far in this campaign, it will be a nervy 90 minutes for the Stamford Bridge faithful.
Kick-off is nearly here.