Antonio Conte and Italy secured their place in the knockout rounds of Euro 2016 with their 1-0 win over Sweden. The potential rubber match with Republic of Ireland will provide insight into how Conte employs the depth of his roster.
If Republic of Ireland loses to Belgium today, the Azzurri will clinch the top seed in Group E. The prospect that Italy will face Republic of Ireland in their final Euro 2016 group stage fixture next week with nothing on the line offers an glimpse into how the incoming Chelsea manager will distribute the workload when he takes over at Stamford Bridge.
Conte made only one change to his starting XI to face Sweden, giving Alessandro Florenzi the nod in place of Matteo Darmian, who started against Belgium. In both games, Thiago Motta came on as a substitute for Daniele de Rossi. Both Darmian and Florenzi were substituted in the second half of their respective games. Up front, Eder and Graziano Pelle each played one complete game and were substituted in the other.
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Throughout Chelsea’s Premier League championship-winning 2014/15 season, then-manager Jose Mourinho relied on a small pool of his star players. Even as the title became inevitable, and persisting after Chelsea clinched the title, Mourinho made few adjustments to his starting XI and his 18-man roster for each game.
As the 2014/15 season wore on, Chelsea’s style of play slowed down and lost the highly-entertaining offensive punch that defined the early part of the campaign. Some of this was strategic, as Mourinho took to “parking the bus” once Chelsea took the lead in the game. But it also hinted at the accumulation of fatigue setting in across 54 games in the Premier League, FA Cup, a run to the quarterfinals of the Champions League and a Capital One Cup championship.
Much to the chagrin of many fans and to the concern of many others, the final few games of 2014/15 were not a showcase of Chelsea youth nor a well-deserved rest for the stars who brought the trophy to Stamford Bridge.
One explanation for Chelsea’s worse-title-defense-ever was the fatigue from one season carrying over to the next. Eden Hazard and Diego Costa reported to pre-season training visibly unfit. Many of their teammates started the season without the energy and sharpness necessary to win early games and gain a foothold in the league standings. Their indiscipline was as much an over-compensation for the demands of 2014/15 as it was an over-celebration of that season’s accomplishments.
In 2014/15, 11 Chelsea outfield players accumulated over 1000 minutes of Premier League match-time. All but one of these playes (Ramires) played over 2000 minutes in the Premier League that year. Last season, 14 Chelsea outfield players saw over 1000 minutes of Premier League action, and only 8 of them played more than 2000 minutes.
Some of this was tactical, as Mourinho and then his interim successor Guus Hiddink had to take a “kitchen sink” approach to salvaging something from the season. Part of it was out of necessity, as injuries forced the two managers to cycle through the lineup. The greater propensity to injury underscores how the players were more fatigued and more vulnerable. The necessity to provide a broader distribution of playing time across the roster in 2015/16 had its roots in the failure to do so in 2014/15, when Mourinho still had a choice in the matter.
In 2014/15, 11 Chelsea outfield players accumulated over 1000 minutes of Premier League match-time, with 10 over 2000 minutes. Last season, 14 went over 1000 minutes and only 8 over 2000.
Jose Mourinho has developed a reputation for having a three-year shelf life at any club. His tenure follows a predictable pattern of rapid success, a quick plateau and then a fiery end. This three-year window is a combination of his psychological manipulations wearing thin, and also the physical consequences on his players of how he attains those initial glories.
As Euro 2016 viewers are learning, Antonio Conte is a strategic and tactical genius. His lineup against Republic of Ireland in a inconsequential match will offer a glimpse into another corner of his thinking. Will he play each game, and each block of games, with the short-term goal of “win now, and win at all costs?” Or will he approach each game as a building block for a dynasty?
If Antonio Conte stays with his usual starters and substitutes for the match against Republic of Ireland, it is unlikely that he will make significant changes in the knockout rounds barring any injuries. That would be a worrying sign for Chelsea, particularly incoming transfers unaccustomed to the physicality of the Premier League.
As Conte develops his transfer wish-list he needs to factor in what 38 games of 90 minutes of Premier League football does compared to Serie A football, and how players like Leonardo Bonucci and Radja Nainggolan would hold up under those demands for the next few seasons.
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Chelsea has the depth and the youth to field any number of on-pitch combinations that can develop into perennial title-contenders. Strategically choosing his starting XI and 18-man roster from game to game – and, at Chelsea, across the cup competitions – will be the long-term version of the “chameleon” tactics Conte employs on the pitch.
All stats via WhoScored.com
Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly identified the Group E team as Northern Ireland. That error has been corrected.