Chelsea panicked and made two Transfer Deadline Day deals. Was the splashier of the two – David Luiz’s return – a worthwhile move?
Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso move has significantly more merits than first glance may let on. But what about the other Transfer Deadline Day deal. The Big One. Is there any value in the David Luiz agreement?
First, if you were part of the team that won the Champions League in 2012 then I prefer you to 99.9% of people in the world. That’s simple.
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However, this was not a strong piece of business from Chelsea. The constant refrain of “his mistakes aren’t that bad” really puts this into perspective. People can’t even talk about him without mentioning his mistakes in the first sentence. Too many ignore the facts about this deal and him as a player because he is nice and smiley.
Nice-and-smiley doesn’t win football matches.
Chelsea bought back David Luiz for £34 million on a three-year deal with a one-year option. A three-year deal for a £30+ million signing is already a red flag that the manager doesn’t want him around that long.
So why pay that much in the first place? The standard length of a contract for a similarly expensive player is five years. These days some contracts go out to six years. Chelsea are essentially paying a little over £11 million a year (without salary) for David Luiz.
Two comparable players that were bought for similar amounts in this transfer window were Eric Bailly and Samuel Umtiti. Manchester United bought Bailly for £30 million, and Barcelona bought Umtiti for £21 million. They are both 22 while David Luiz is 29, yet Luiz cost more than both.
| David Luiz (25 Games) | Samuel Umtiti (30 Games) | Eric Bailly (25 Games) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tackles Won | 23 | 36 | 32 |
| Aerial Duels Won | 61.36% | 72.22% | 53.85% |
| Blocks | 8 | 17 | 16 |
| Clearances | 84 | 153 | 120 |
| Defensive Errors | 4 | 1 | 2 |
Stats via Squawka.
Both Bailly and Umtiti completed more tackles last season than Luiz. They both did so by a large margin. Aerial duels are bread-and-butter for a center back. Once again, David Luiz was more expensive and experienced, yet he comes in a distant second place in that statistic. Blocks, like tackles, are one of the rawest defensive measurements. Luiz made eight, while Umtiti and Bailly doubled this tally. Clearances? Same story.
Most tellingly: the only statistic David Luiz wins is defensive errors. Which he wins by two.
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The most infuriating thing I’ve heard recently is that David Luiz is a “ball playing center half”. This is one of the great myths of modern football. Every single player on the field is expected to be able to pass the ball and control it well. Good center backs were never excused poor passing ability.
Where did this myth come from? Nesta was a good passer. Cannavaro and Thuram were good passers. Further back than that, so were Franz Beckenbauer and Bobby Moore.
These days “ball playing center half” is a phrase used almost as an excuse for defensive frailty. Sorry, but that is inexcusable. A car that won’t start isn’t a good car simply because it has a nice interior. It needs to get you from A to B. Then we can discuss the benefits of all-leather seating.
Leonardo Bonucci of Juventus is probably the best “ball playing center half” in Europe. He’s a formidable defender who also passes well. Not “he’s a bad defender but it’s ok because he passes well and would be nice to have around for Christmas supper”.
Another nonsensical quote passed around about Luiz is “hey his passing percentage is great now!” Passing percentage is a phony statistic because it is so easily inflatable. I get near 95% pass completion in FIFA because I score quickly then pass back and forth around the midfield (classic parking the bus). So throw that out the window before we get started.
What matters is what one does with their passes.
| David Luiz (25 Goals) | Leonardo Bonucci (36 Games) | Kalidou Koulibaly (33 Games) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Backward Passes | 374 | 272 | 292 |
| Key Passes | 7 | 14 | 9 |
| Tackles Won | 23 | 28 | 69 |
| Interceptions | 60 | 82 | 82 |
| Blocks | 8 | 13 | 21 |
Stats via Squawka.
David Luiz has far fewer forward passes than Bonucci and Koulibaly. He’s behind both by almost 500 in a season. This suggests inflation in terms of pass percentage already. Factoring in backward passes is enough to falsify the percentage-as-quality argument.
Luiz passed backwards almost 100 more times than the other two. That’s simple passes like back to the keeper or defensive partner. I thought he was a…what is it called? Ball playing center half? You know, helps get the attack started?
Hardly. Luiz is again behind Bonucci and Koulibaly in key passes, which are passes into the danger zones around the box and into the forward third. He also loses in tackles won, interceptions and blocks.
This ball playing excuse is something people made up in the past two years to justify the risks he takes and mistakes he makes simply because they like him.
David Luiz is not a ball playing center half. He is a center half of good physical stature and speed who is helpful to Chelsea but not in any of the ways people are suggesting.
David Luiz is more similar to Kurt Zouma given his speed and physicality that can make up for his mistakes. While Zouma’s errors are excusable due to lack of experience, Luiz’s are not. He is eight years older but is no closer to being a complete defender. With his talent, Luiz should be among the best in Europe. He simply is not.
I like the guy and no one would be happier to be wrong than me. But people need to stop making excuses for him. The rationalizations and easy forgiveness have enabled his stagnation because he never felt the pressure or need to improve.
No one is a “ball playing center half”. You are either a good center half or you are not. A complete package or not. David Luiz is not a complete package but he is a helpful piece. Chelsea fans should be happy he’s back but clear-eyed about his deficiencies.
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Luiz can improve and be a world-beater. I hope he does. After all he’s a Chelsea player. If Chelsea are going to get back atop the Premier League and Europe they will need an entire squad of world-beaters.