Ten wins in a row. Last-minute heroics. A charming Christmas video. Spirits are rightfully high among Chelsea fans. But let’s keep performances in perspective, particularly when assessing Thibaut Courtois and David Luiz.
Thibaut Courtois’ save on Patrick Van Aanholt was one of the top highlights in football for 2016. It will be one of the great moments of the 2016/17 campaign, particularly if Chelsea win the title. The list of people that would praise the wonder of Courtois’ save include Van Aanholt himself and Kevin de Bruyne.
For all the accolades and adjectives The Save has and will continue to earn, at the end of the day, it was but a single save. In a fraction of a second, Courtois showed the world the extent of his talents. But no save – nor, for that matter, a goal, a game or a streak – divorced from a player’s history permits many broad conclusions about him.
Sorry, no offence, it’s true.
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More so than any other position, greatness for a goalkeeper comes down to the least glamourous attribute: consistency. David de Gea’s agility, Manuel Neuer’s ball-playing and Petr Cech’s…, well, everything about Petr Cech are all secondary to their ability to deliver those performances with nearly monotonous regularity. A goalkeeper cannot permit his team to wonder whether the next chance will be the one he bobbles.
The lack of that security behind John Terry and Co. the last few years separates Thibaut Courtois from de Gea, Neuer and his predecessor Cech. Courtois can deliver the occasional heart-stopping magic moment. He has not lived up to his billing as someone who can allow a relaxed heart beat.
The Telegraph took the occasion of The Save to praise Courtois’ statistics so far this season. They note his improved pass accuracy, fewer goals conceded per game and increased save percentage. They point out that he has made more saves despite the shift to the 3-4-3.
The numbers elide the context in which they were created. Courtois has better targets for short passes in the 3-4-3 than he did with a four-man back-line. The three-man defence combined with Chelsea’s high press allows him to play the ball on the ground to Cesar Azpilicueta or Gary Cahill, who then play out through the midfield. Courtois needs fewer low-percentage long balls to initiate Chelsea’s forward movement.
The shot and save data does not factor in the distance of those shots. Chelsea gives up few shots within their box. Only Manchester City regularly came within arms reach of Thibaut Courtois. Most teams end up shooting from outside the box or at poor angles, allowing him to easily smother the chance.
David Luiz is another beneficiary of similarly context-deprived statistics. Luiz continues to inhabit the narrative of a “ball-playing centre-back.” That narrative in itself softly lowers expectations. It boosts a player for competence in an ancillary skill, while obscuring short-comings in his primary tasking. David Luiz’s ball-playing is independent of and ultimately irrelevant to assessing his deficiencies as a defender.
But even as a “ball-playing centre-back,” Luiz’s pass percentage is typically within a few percentage points of Gary Cahill’s or Cesar Azpilicueta’s. More telling is his pass selection and decision-making.
Against Sunderland, Luiz was 4/11 on long passes. Cahill was 1/2, and Azpilicueta did not attempt any. Luiz persisted in making unsuccessful long passes, either not cognizant of or unconcerned by their incompletion. The “ball-playing centre-back” lowered his pass percentage relative to his more traditional defensive partners who, not surprisingly, had stronger defensive games.
Luiz excelled at neither role of ball-player nor centre-back. But the narrative will live on.
Sixteen games do not make a season any more than one season makes a career. Luiz and Courtois have established their baselines of performance over many seasons. Those are the standards they should be evaluated against – not a team-wide, 10-game run of top play.
Chelsea’s recent streak has been a return to form for Diego Costa and Eden Hazard. Last year was an aberration in their respective careers. It was the exception, and so far, 2016/17 is back to the norm. N’Golo Kante is extending the standards he set at Leicester City. Victor Moses is making his mark for the first time.
Thibaut Courtois’ strong game against Sunderland and brilliance in the 94th minute are isolated moments. He is doing many things right, but Chelsea are not clear of the risks he presents. David Luiz had eight games where he seemed to be shedding many of his Luiz-isms. Against West Bromwich Albion and Sunderland, he seemed to be regressing to his norm.
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So let’s keep our spirits and the blue flag flying high. But we would not want Antonio Conte talking about Chelsea’s title chances in mid-December. Nor should we draw too many conclusions 16 games into a 38-game season that is only one season in these players’ careers.