Barring injury or suspension, Chelsea’s starting XI is assuredly predictable. Willian and Pedro are so equivalently matched at right wing, they remain the only real decision point in Antonio Conte’s starting XI.
After the Arsenal loss Antonio Conte set out to develop a formation and system that perfectly suited his players. Because Chelsea’s players are the foundation of the 3-4-3, from day one there has been little variation in the lineup.
The one exception to the consistency of the lineup is at right-wing. Both Willian and Pedro have shown what they bring to the pitch and to the role. When given the opportunities, both have made strong cases for their inclusion. However, neither have performed so well as to definitively consign the other to the bench.
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Compounding Antonio Conte’s decision-making is how similar Pedro and Willian are. This is particularly the case compared to the only other pair competing for a spot on the pitch. Among the centre-midfielders, provided N’Golo Kante is available, Conte’s choice is Cesc Fabregas or Nemanja Matic. If the situation calls for offensive creativity and minimal defensive support, Fabregas is in. If the game requires height, defence and another holding player in the centre, Matic has it.
Willian and Pedro are more evenly matched in playing time than any other pair of players at the same position. Willian has played 901 minutes over 10 starts and five substitute appearances. Pedro has played 851 minutes over 11 starts and five substitutions. By comparison, Matic has played 1000 more minutes than Fabregas over the course of 11 additional starts.
Willian has five goals to Pedro’s four. While Pedro has four more assists than Willian, the Brazilian has more key passes and more dribbles. This attests to Willian’s better proficiency in possession, whereas Pedro is more effective at creating space and getting on the end of passes.
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Chelsea’s fixtures against Manchester City and Stoke highlighted Willian’s determination to displace Pedro as the go-to right wing. Willian came on for Pedro early in the second-half against Manchester City, and started against Stoke as Pedro served his suspension.
Willian opened both appearances without his confidence or eye for goal. His first shot against City was well wide from over 20 yards out, showing equally poor selection and execution. He appeared to be going in the opposite direction from Cesc Fabregas, who was unequivocally stating his case for a starting spot.
Willian then scored Chelsea’s second goal on an 11-second, 5-pass counter-attack. For the remainder of the game, Willian stalked another goal and contributed to Chelsea’s rampage over City.
On Saturday against Stoke, he was tentative and ineffective in the first half, not registering a single shot. He started the second half only mildly better. He showed his tell-tale sign of a lack of confidence and offensive nous. When in preferred shooting positions on the right side of the penalty box or at the top of the box, he tried to cut a shot near post. When Willian is on form and seeking a goal, he rips devastating shots across the keeper to the far post as he did against Manchester City.
He took his moment, though, blasting in Eden Hazard’s lay-off pass for Chelsea’s second. True to form, he cut the ball across the net into the far corner. From then on, it was his game.
Willian was Chelsea’s only star last season, and Pedro is proving to be another sharp acquisition. Neither player is a model of consistency, meaning that this back-and-forth will continue for the remainder of the season. So far, Pedro has benefited more from Antonio Conte’s philosophy that no player is guaranteed his position. Willian is giving chase, and in his quiet and humble way is creating stiff competition for his teammate.
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After 13 consecutive victories Antonio Conte – and the football world – well knows Chelsea’s best XI. When the only question mark over your lineup is Willian or Pedro, your club is in an enviably strong position.