Liverpool’s exit from the EFL Cup is the latest example of a mid-table or lower team defeating one of Chelsea’s title challengers. Antonio Conte’s tactics require a higher level of skill to overcome than all but the top few teams possess.
Chelsea’s next Premier League fixture is away to Liverpool. The Reds started the season in devastating fashion, unleashing Jurgen Klopp’s gengenpressung system on the English game. Since the holidays, though, the English game has caught up with Klopp. Liverpool are looking particularly vulnerable at the perfect time for Chelsea’s visit.
Southampton dispatched Liverpool from the EFL Cup with two 1-0 wins. The Saints had 28% possession, six fewer shots and over 20% lower pass completion rates than Liverpool in the second leg. They kept themselves in the game with 63 clearances and 37 aerial clearances. Southampton continuously clogged the middle of the pitch, sweeping out any potentially dangerous balls.
Southampton are the most recent team to recognize that Liverpool are dependent rapid, short-ball thrusts up the centre of the pitch. Steven Davis, Oriol Romeu and Jared Ward-Prowse forced Liverpool to take the ball to the outside. The Saints conceded the flanks, packing eight or more men behind the ball while spreading no wider than the box.
Liverpool had no choice but to attempt precise long balls and crosses to get behind Southampton’s defence. This is not a core competency of any Klopp team, particularly these Reds.
Chelsea showed one way to defeat Manchester City in their thrilling early December fixture. Since then Leicester City, Liverpool and Everton have all added to the “beat Pep” repertoire. City’s clueless defending, abysmal goal-keeping and rigid adherence to the Guardiola playbook build a template that a range of teams can exploit.
Tottenham, likewise, demonstrated how to defeat Chelsea. Mauricio Pochettino’s tactics exploited the space Chelsea’s wingbacks leave open when they push up. This put the Spurs in position to target the Blues’ commendable but makeshift back-three. Dele Alli scored nearly identical goals by getting between and behind David Luiz, Gary Cahill and Cesar Azpilicueta.
Equally importantly, Tottenham was able to press Chelsea and disrupt Chelsea’s normal quick-release counter-attack. The Spurs have enough speed that they could press high and overload Chelsea’s attempts to play out yet still get back if they needed to cover on defence.
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Leicester City and Everton could adapt Chelsea’s method for beating Manchester City. Plymouth Argyle and Southampton could copy the playbook for stymieing Liverpool. No other team has Tottenham’s combination of high caliber players, skill and speed to imitate the Spurs’ method against Chelsea.
Clogging the middle of the pitch and forcing Chelsea to the outside does not work when Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses stalk the wings. Playing ten men behind the ball is ineffective when Cesc Fabregas can place a pass on the head of a needle from 40 yards. Pressing high against Chelsea is suicidal when a single outlet pass will send Pedro, Eden Hazard or Willian to the races.
The only way to defeat Chelsea is to be as good as they are. Most teams will have to content themselves to play for a draw. Chelsea’s opponents in the latter stages of their win streak showed this can limit to the damage to 1-0, but it cannot stop Chelsea altogether.
Tottenham have been the only team to meet the Antonio Conte challenge. Arsenal is the remaining credible threat. The Gunners have similarly skilled players and enough speed to employ similar tactics as Tottenham.
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Liverpool has only won a single game in January: the FA Cup replay against Plymouth Argyle. The Reds are vulnerable and Jurgen Klopp is frustrated. If Liverpool fail to win against Wolverhampton in this weekend’s FA Cup tie, the Blues may face an utterly demoralized and disoriented side on Tuesday.