Chelsea’s tactics against West Ham hinge on Andy Carroll’s mood today

Andy Carroll is West Ham’s biggest threat against Chelsea’s defence, assuming he shows up to play. Chelsea may have a trouble-free evening if Carroll takes the night off.

West Ham manager Slaven Bilic inherited a talented team riven by drama and toxic personalities. No sooner had Bilic jettisoned Dimitri Payet than Andy Carroll stepped up as the team’s most non-committal player. Chelsea’s challenge against West Ham will depend in large part on whether Carroll shows up in body and mind.

At 1.93m, Carroll absolutely towers over the 1.78m Cesar Azpilicueta. West Ham will target this mismatch at every opportunity. They will also look to create aerial battles between Carroll and David Luiz. Luiz is only a few centimetres shorter than Carroll, but is still not at full capability.

Chelsea may need to reinforce their midfield with height to counter the Carroll threat. Antonio Conte may start with Nemanja Matic, who can provide the height and physical presence against Carroll. After determining if Carroll is on his game, Conte can then assess if he needs Cesc Fabregas as a second-half substitute to provide more offence.

"If Andy Carroll is playing against an injured David Luiz and a short Cesar Azpilicueta, you have to play Nemanja Matic. Andy Carroll will win the physical battle with David Luiz and Cesar Azpilicueta. [But] a lot of this does hinge on whether Andy Carroll feels like playing. – Barrett Rouen, The Blue Lions"

West Ham are already without their leading scorer, Michail Antonio, due to suspension. Carroll has not played since February 4 due to a groin injury of questionable seriousness. Without Antonio, Bilic is relying on Carroll to threaten Chelsea in the box, particularly in the air.

Behind Carroll and Antonio, Manuel Lanzini has been West Ham’s best offensive player. Lanzini can play on either side, so Slaven Bilic will likely start him on the right. This would put him up against Gary Cahill. That match-up tilts in Lanzini’s favour, and creates a passing lane to Carroll against Azpilicueta or Luiz.

Chelsea can take control of the match very early on with a fiery start. Slaven Bilic is a good manager, but he does not have a group of players that will fight their way back into a game, particularly against the league leaders.

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The Blues can quickly take Andy Carroll out of the game with consistent pressure and possession in West Ham’s half. If Chelsea can do that early, Thibaut Courtois might want to bring a book.