Diego Costa’s goal impact at Chelsea eclipses other Premier League goal leaders

Diego Costa bounced back from a short goal drought with second-half goals in Chelsea’s last three games. The impact of his scoring across the season is comparable to his fellow Golden Boot contenders.

Diego Costa took a bit of criticism when his first two goals after his three-game goal drought were late-game insurance goals. His goal against West Ham United came much earlier in the game but looked to be much the same. However, a lapse by Chelsea’s defence in the 91st minute allowed Manuel Lanzini to spoil the clean sheet. As a result, Costa’s 50′ thigh-in became the game winner.

Costa is no more a “safety goal” scorer than any of the Premier League’s other top scorers. His goals have had a similar – and arguably greater – impact on the Blues’ results than the rest of the top four.

Diego Costa and Alexis Sanchez each have 17 goals this season. Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane share the lead with 19 goals each. Costa has scored more of his team’s early goals than any of these three.

Costa’s and Kane’s goals account for more of their teams’ points than Sanchez’s and Lukaku’s. Costa scored the game-winning goal in eight games and the game-tying goal in one game. This puts 38% of Chelsea’s points on Costa’s feet. Kane edges Costa by a single percent, with his seven game-winners and one game-tying goal accounting for 39% of Tottenham’s 56 points.

Game-winning goals are not necessarily those that put the team ahead. A game-winning goal is the goal that ends up being one more than the opponent’s total. When “go-ahead” goals – i.e., goals that break a deadlock – are tallied, Kane leads the pack but not by much.

Chelsea transfer target Romelu Lukaku has received the least amount of support from his teammates in preserving the lead he provided. Lukaku put Everton ahead eight times. On four of those occasions, Everton subsequently surrendered the lead.

The other three forwards only saw their leads disappear once each. In Costa’s case, he personally overcame his teammates’ single incident of carelessness. Against Swansea in September, Costa put the Blues ahead 1-0 in the 18th minute. Chelsea fell behind 2-1 early in the second half, until Costa equalized in the 81st for a 2-2 draw.

Diego Costa leads the top four scorers in scoring the lone goal in 1-0 wins. In just under a month, Costa gave Chelsea 1-0 wins over Middlesbrough, West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace. Harry Kane gave Tottenham 1-0 wins twice. Neither Lukaku nor Sanchez have managed the feat.

Costa has also scored in more games than the other goal-scoring leaders. Costa scored in 16 games, with one multi-goal game. Lukaku’s 19 goals have come over 13 games, with three multi-goal games. Kane and Sanchez each scored in 11 games, five of which had them on the score sheet more than once.

Chelsea have a better goal distribution across the roster than any other club. Costa accounts for only 29% of Chelsea’s 57 goals, thanks in large part to Eden Hazard and Pedro. At the other end is Romelu Lukaku, who has scored 43% of Everton’s goals.

Chelsea’s balance across their offence allows Costa’s contributions to stand out a bit less. When his performance or attitude tails off, the rest of the squad compensates sufficiently. This opens the door to Costa being under-appreciated, if not taken for granted.

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However, Costa is every bit as important to his team’s standing as the Premier League’s other top scorers are to theirs. Costa’s detractors would do well to consider Costa’s contributions to Chelsea’s 10-point Premier League lead the next time they point out a “safety goal.”

All stats from whoscored.com.