When a Premier League title race gets tight towards the end, a single game can change the momentum enough to crown one team champion over another. For Chelsea and Tottenham, that game will not even be in the league.
Momentum is a powerful thing in football. Some clubs live and die by it. One good match can turn the season around, and one bad match can just as easily crush their dreams. Chelsea’s win over Liverpool in 2013/2014 dealt such a blow to Liverpool that they gave up a three goal lead to Crystal Palace the next week. That effectively crushed their remaining titles hopes.
Arsenal’s defeat of Manchester City was enough to convince Manchester United they could take their foot off the gas with a month to go. City closed the gap, beat their cross town rivals as United continued to lose points and eventually rode the momentum to winning with seconds to spare on the last day.
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This season, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have narrowed the gap between them from 13 points to four. The momentum between the two could not be more different. Chelsea was soaring on a record-setting winning run. But they have increasingly stagnated in recent weeks, culminating in a 2-0 loss to Manchester United.
Meanwhile, Spurs have been defeating all challengers. A sluggish start to the season coupled with key injuries saw them struggle early. But as players adapted and returned from injury the Spurs have gone on their own winning run, scoring by the bucket load along the way.
Now the two rivals are set to face off in the FA Cup semifinal in a game. On paper, the game has nothing to do with the Premier League title. Realistically the entire chase turns on it.
Chelsea will be desperate for a retaliatory strike after their embarrassing defeat to United. Spurs will be looking to break the rival that caused them to lose the title last year. They will want to steal the title away from Chelsea out of revenge as well as ambition.
Chelsea’s mentality going into, during, and coming out of the FA Cup match is everything. If they are on the end of another poor result, it will cause every player’s head to drop. That will bleed into their Premier League form. It will also give Spurs the belief that they are better than Chelsea and can catch them, adding more fuel to their current blazing form.
A Blues win could also be a wakeup call as Spurs get ahead of themselves. Tottenham is equally vulnerably to complacency. Spurs could suffer a poor result by assuming they are too good to lose. This would let Chelsea lock down the run-in and finish the season well.
And of course, all of this could happen in the exact opposite way. Regardless of the result itself, how the teams react to the result will determine the title. Either momentum will be broken or momentum will be gained, but not both.
While the winner of Chelsea vs. Tottenham will likely win the FA Cup, the Premier League is the true prize for both clubs. The semifinal match will be a final in all but name for two separate trophies, and will be viewed in retrospect as the game that decided the season.
Next: Chelsea and Tottenham battling new expectations in final weeks of season
Antonio Conte will have a long week ahead of him to fix the mistakes and mindset from the United match in time for Spurs. Chelsea must take the match with the utmost seriousness. The season rests upon it.