Lack of squad rotation haunts Antonio Conte as Gary Cahill in doubt for FA Cup

After having the Premier League’s most stable starting XI, Antonio Conte is now scrambling to accommodate a wave of illness. Gary Cahill went to hospital on Tuesday, and is questionable for Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final.

Gary Cahill is the latest Chelsea starter to succumb to a sudden illness in the past week. Cahill spent two days in hospital before going home yesterday, but his status for Saturday’s tie is in doubt. His illness is likely different from that which affected Marcos Alonso, Victor Moses and Diego Costa in last week’s loss to Manchester United.

Cahill’s presumed absence leaves Antonio Conte once more without a key starter going into a crucial game. Conte made several changes to compensate for Alonso’s absence last Saturday, which contributed to Chelsea’s disorganized play.

One would think that Conte would play Nathan Ake as a like-for-like substitution at left centre-back. Whatever misgivings Conte had about Ake filling in as left wing-back should not apply in this case. Ake played consistently at centre-back for Bournemouth. Conte explicitly said that he recalled Ake for depth at centre-back, not on the flanks.

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However, nothing is certain with Conte’s personnel choices beyond his usual XI. For most of the season, Chelsea had one of the Premier League’s most stable lineups. The Blues have more players (7) with over 2500 minutes than any other team. Each week, Conte only had one real choice to make: Nemanja Matic or Cesc Fabregas in midfield. Even when players were playing poorly or were fatigued from international duty, Conte persisted in his usual XI.

Chelsea are now facing the consequences of Antonio Conte’s refusal to rotate his squad. Forced to play other players, he has no one he can trust. Conte came to rely wholly on his starting XI. While he has used all three substitutes in every game this season, most of those came on late in the game. One usually came on after the 89′ as a time-wasting substitution.

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As a result, Chelsea’s substitutes have little game experience and no experience going the full 90 minutes. Conte refused to take calculated risks to bring young players into the squad earlier in the season.

He did not play Michy Batshuayi when Diego Costa was injured in January. He did not bring Nathan Ake in to allow David Luiz’s knee to fully heal in February. Conte played N’Golo Kante after Kante played two full matches for France, rather than blood Nathaniel Chalobah with a Premier League start in March

Now, twice in the span of one week, Antonio Conte has no choice but to turn to his bench. But he has no satisfactory choices. Who can he trust against England’s hottest team on England’s biggest stage, when he did not trust them on a run-of-the-mill Saturday afternoon in the Midlands?

If Gary Cahill cannot play on Saturday, Chelsea will need to replace a centre-back and a leader. Cahill has been one of Chelsea’s most dependable – if rarely spectacular – players. His play has kept Nathan Ake, Kurt Zouma and John Terry out of the lineup. Antonio Conte must turn to one of them to replace Cahill on the backline, and choose someone to be the Blues’ captain at Wembley. He did not prepare well for this eventuality.

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Antonio Conte’s squad rotation gamble paid off by propelling Chelsea to a comfortable Premier League lead. That may have come at the expense of being able to protect the final four points that separate Chelsea from Tottenham, in addition to their FA Cup hopes.