Diego Costa, Eden Hazard lead early line for first retrospective diving penalty

STOKE ON TRENT, ENGLAND - MARCH 18: Ryan Shawcross of Stoke City (L) fouls Diego Costa of Chelsea (R) during the Premier League match between Stoke City and Chelsea at Bet365 Stadium on March 18, 2017 in Stoke on Trent, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
STOKE ON TRENT, ENGLAND - MARCH 18: Ryan Shawcross of Stoke City (L) fouls Diego Costa of Chelsea (R) during the Premier League match between Stoke City and Chelsea at Bet365 Stadium on March 18, 2017 in Stoke on Trent, England. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images) /
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The Football Association will retroactively punish simulation starting next season. One odds-maker already has Diego Costa the 4/1 favourite to sit out two games for “Successful Deception of a Match Official.”

A series of missed calls – including some that decided the outcome of games – have prompted the Football Association to crack down on diving starting in the 2017/2018 season. The new regulations target simulations that have just such a decisive effect on the match.

Three scenarios will trigger a two-game ban for “Successful Deception of a Match Official”: the simulation leads to a penalty, a straight red or a second yellow. While it is slight consolation, the FA will also rescind the bookings given as a result of the simulation.

Given his history of such behaviour in La Liga and the Premier League, Diego Costa is an early favourite to be the first player sanctioned under the new rules. Betway gives Costa 4/1 odds of breaking the Premier League’s duck for simulation.

According to a press release from Betway’s Alan Alger:

"It’s been a season filled with a few contentious decisions and a number of players have gone unpunished for diving. We go 4/1 for Chelsea’s controversial Diego Costa to be first to face the music in front of the FA’s new diving panel next season."

Costa’s reputation preceded him from Spain, and he has often been the boy who cried wolf writhing on the pitch. Referees often keep their whistle quiet during clear fouls, simply because they are desensitized to Costa’s antics. In the second half of this season, as Costa’s motivation dropped and his attitude flared, he doubled down on his attempts to draw fouls rather than stay on his feet and keep the play moving.

Betway’s ranking falls short, though, on two major factors. First, Costa will likely not be in the Premier League next season. If he is at Chelsea, yes, he likely will receive a ban for simulation. But the odds of him leaving are far better than 4/1.

More significantly, Betway gives Eden Hazard the second-highest odds at 9/2. Alger explains this by saying Hazard is “regularly looking to commit players in all areas of the pitch.” More broadly, it is “the speedier players who force referees to make decisions.” While both of these statements are true, neither have any bearing any simulation.

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Eden Hazard does not go to ground needlessly. Even when he is in one of his lulls, he will not go down without at least some contact. When he is at his best he can be brought down only through persistent and aggressive hacking, as Tottenham and Manchester United demonstrated.

“Speedier players” may draw more fouls as defenders struggle to keep up or prevent scoring chances from developing. Referees may make more mistakes on calls against speedier players if they are in a disadvantageous position to see the play, or simply because the play happens so quickly. But neither of those factors has any bearing on simulation.

Video replay will reveal whether any contact took place leading to the alleged simulator going to ground. Particularly in the first year, the FA would be wise to limit their sanctions to circumstances where the player goes to ground upon no contact.

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In that case, Manchester United, Tottenham and Crystal Palace have much more to worry about than Chelsea. Marcus Rashford, Dele Alli and Wilfried Zaha all committed some of the most egregious unpunished simulations of the season. They are more likely to receive the first sanction under the rule they helped inspire.