Atletico Madrid’s transfer ban complicates Chelsea’s transfer situation

The Court of Arbitration for Sport upheld Atletico Madrid’s transfer ban, blocking them from registering any new players until January. This creates several wrinkles in Chelsea’s transfer window.

Until this morning, Atletico Madrid and Chelsea may have shared a common goal for the summer: engineer Diego Costa’s return to La Liga. But with their transfer ban in place, Atletico Madrid’s top priority now will be holding on to Antoine Griezmann. They cannot afford to play the first half of the season without their most important player – most goals, most assists, second-most minutes – and without a suitable replacement.

Although Manchester United thought Griezmann was worth a £90 million transfer, they are cooling on the idea that he will be worth the extra effort. United are now exploring a transfer for one of Chelsea’s top targets, Romelu Lukaku.

The mere whiff of interest from another rich club will induce Everton to add at least 10% to Lukaku’s asking price. Their hard-nose negotiations were worrisome enough when the Blues were the only interested party. If United are involved, with their demonstrated willingness to spend and then overspend*, Chelsea will be wondering why they did not sell more players to China to cover the cost.

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United’s involvement, and the projected spike in Lukaku’s transfer fee, may convince Chelsea that he is not worth it. Everton have already inflated his valuation knowing Roman Abramovich is the buyer. Chelsea may realize that Lukaku is not worth a (near)-world record fee. That is even more the case when your other options include Alvaro Morata for less money.

However, whether Chelsea walks away from the Lukaku negotiations or not does nothing to resolve the Diego Costa situation. Antonio Conte may switch to a 3-5-2 to accommodate Costa and whoever Chelsea buys. At best, they are still stuck with Costa. At worst, Costa is unhappy with the tactics or his partner and now they are stuck with a petulant and angry Costa.

Diego Costa knows – and if he doesn’t, somebody better tell him soon – that he will be sharing the top of the line by the end of the summer. That prospect, hopefully delivered as a cold hard Conte truth, may be sufficient for him to take up the transfer ban’s fine print.

Atletico Madrid cannot “register” a player while under the ban. That is, they cannot bring in anyone and play him in a game. But they can still sign players and allow them to train with the club. Then when the ban expires, they would register that player and add him to the squad.

If Costa’s projected future at Chelsea is so grim, and his longing for Atletico Madrid so forlorn, he may sign with Atletico knowing he would not play until January. If he sees that his choices are the bench in London or the bench in Madrid, at the least the bench in Madrid has a possibility of a happier ending.

Chelsea may now have a bidding war on their hands to go with their disgruntled striker. On top of that, his transfer fee would have fueled new purchases. But if Chelsea plays their cards right, they may end the window with a better striker at a better price, and still off-load Costa to his preferred destination.

Our advice: let Marina Granovskaia handle this one.

Next: Nemanja Matic still attracting Jose Mourinho's attention for a summer transfer

*This is not to imply that Manchester United buys their titles. Only Chelsea does that, obvi.