Diego Costa move to Atletico despite transfer ban carries weighty risks

Diego Costa may still transfer to Atletico Madrid and simply not play until their transfer ban expires. This carries major risks for everyone involved (except Chelsea).

Antonio Conte and the Court of Arbitration for Sport left Diego Costa between a rock and hard place.* Conte told Costa – and Costa quickly told the world – that he was not part of the manager’s plans for Chelsea next season. The CAS, meanwhile, upheld Atletico Madrid’s transfer ban, closing the door on Costa’s preferred destination.

Moreover, Atletico were perhaps the only club willing to put up with him. No other club this side of Tianjin Quanjian had shown any interest in the fiery striker. He had few options remaining if he was not playing at Chelsea but could not rejoin Atletico.

That dilemma has not improved in recent weeks, and may include one further catch. Reports yesterday had Costa willing to move to Atletico, with the understanding that they would not loan him for the first half of the season. He would simply train there for the remainder of 2017 without playing. Once Atletico are eligible to register players on January 1, Costa would offically join the squad.

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There are many problematic aspects to this scenario. First, by willingly sitting out the first half of the season, Costa is practically resigning his place on Spain’s national team ahead of the 2018 World Cup.

Julen Lopetegui would be hard-pressed to select Diego Costa for his squad in the remaining international breaks of 2017 if those would be Costa’s only competitive matches since May. Even if Diego Costa started play in January in top form, Lopetegui would not want to introduce a new player for the final run-in based on so few observations and even fewer training sessions.

If this were not the run-in to the World Cup, the idea of Diego Costa relinquishing his spot with Spain would be more plausible. Likewise, in a non-World Cup year, Lopetegui may be more likely to restore Costa to the squad in the spring once he gets some games in his legs.

Within Atletico, the Costa gambit could backfire any number of ways. Foremost, Diego Costa likes guarantees. He likes to know his place in the squad – e.g., starting centre-forward – and does not expect to compete for it.

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He could enter January not performing well enough in training to displace Antoine Griezmann or another forward from the starting XI. Diego Simeone would need to decide if whatever promises and expectations exist with Costa justify inserting him into the lineup at a proven player’s expense.

Similarly, Diego Simeone could give Costa opportunities to play but the time away had a greater impact than expected. In that case Costa could return to the bench and continue fighting for his spot, or carry on as a sub-par replacement. This would alienate other players on the squad who see the manager playing favourites, let alone impact Atletico’s success.

If things do not go perfectly according to plan, Atletico could end up with a fractured locker room and sagging record, with Diego Costa at the centre of the discord. Sound familiar?

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The original plan to sell Costa to Atletico hinged on Atletico selling Antoine Griezmann. Griezmann committed himself to the club when the CAS upheld the ban. He could still leave in January, particularly if Costa is waiting in the wings. But if Griezmann stays the season it is difficult to see a positive outcome for Diego Costa at Atletico Madrid.

The only real winner in this whole scenario is Chelsea. They walk away free and clear from the Costa fiasco. Provided they sign Romelu Lukaku or another striker to replace Costa and all the youth they have already moved, if the other parties want this deal to go through, Chelsea have no reason to stand in their way.

Diego Costa may need to adapt his desires – even if just for the season – to balance his ambitions for club and country. He would have an incredibly steep path to return to the national side in time for Russia if he did not play until January. As much as he wants to play at Atletico, the bigger picture of his career almost demands that he delay that reunion for another year.

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*Yes, you could argue Diego Costa put himself in that position. But since Antonio Conte sent the fateful text, he gets credit for it.