Chelsea player preview: Cesar Azpilicueta, swiss army knives and the von Restorff effect

With Chelsea’s squad dangerously thin, what does the 2017/18 campaign hold in store for the club’s undervalued swiss army knife, Cesar Azpilicueta?

Any article about Cesar Azpilicueta is obligated to mention the word “underrated.” Writers and pundits stress how undervalued he is. Despite the constant reminders, even Chelsea fans forget how good he is. Why is that?

Azpilicueta is a victim of the von Restorff effect. The effect predicts the human brain will recall novelty better than consistency. An example: last April Chelsea beat Manchester City 2-1 at Stamford Bridge. What do you remember from the game? Eden Hazard’s brace? Thibaut Courtois’ error that gifted City a goal?

Those events were extraordinary and are easier to bring to mind. Do you recall Azpilicueta starting the game as the right wing-back and finishing it as the right sided defender in the back three? Do you remember how excellent he was? Probably not.

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It is a testament to how good Azpilicueta has been the last five seasons that a performance of such quality does not even register anymore. He is constantly played out of position which makes his consistency all the more impressive. Jose Mourinho deployed him at left back and he excelled. Antonio Conte fielded him as a center back. His flexibility was integral to last season’s title run.

Azpilicueta has spent so much of his career outside of his natural position of right back, perhaps it is time to consider the possibility that every position is natural for him. Mourinho famously even went as far as to claim a starting XI of Azpilicuetas would win the Champions league.

So what does 2017/18 hold for Chelsea’s Swiss Army knife? Antonio Rudiger’s arrival from Roma could spell the end of his time in the back three. Opponents began targeting him at the end of last season with floated crosses to the back post. The 6’3’’ Rudiger obsoletes that particular stratagem.

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More likely, however, Azpilicueta will remain in the back three, but his role will change. The Bayern Munich match last month offered a clue. Conte identified Franck Ribery as the danger man and gave Azpilicueta the mandate to step into midfield. His aggressive positioning prevented Ribery from receiving the ball and turning. Against an opponent with a dangerous forward on the left, such as Arsenal with Alexis Sanchez, expect to see Azpilicueta step out of the back three more often.

The biggest deciding factor of Azpilicueta’s season may end up being a lack of transfer activity. Unless Chelsea acquire a number of players in the next few weeks, there are several holes in the squad.

Cover for Marcos Alonso at left wing-back is the most urgent need. If preseason matches are anything to go by, Azpilicueta could spend more time at right wing-back if Victor Moses is shunted to the left to cover Alonso.

Chelsea are also currently short on options in the center of midfield. If Conte can turn Moses in to one of the best wing-backs in the Premier League, he could turn Azpilicueta into a more than passable midfielder. Any injuries or suspensions to N’Golo Kante or Tiemoue Bakayoko may necessitate such a move.

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It is uncertain where Chelsea’s newly minted vice-captain will play this season. The end result is not. He will be excellent, but it will go unheralded. Soon though, tactics nerds and managers everywhere will talk about the Azpilicueta effect: the player who is the most flexible and consistent is the most overlooked.