Chelsea’s Premier League schedule does them few favours for the Champions League group stages. The travel distance to those midweek matches may be more of a factor than the quality of the opponent.
Chelsea will face a top-six Premier League team the weekend following four of their Champions League group stage matches: matchweeks 1, 2, 4 and 5. Fortunately for Chelsea, three of those four will be home-and-home. They will play their Champions League tie and the subsequent Premier League match at Stamford Bridge.
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The Blues will return from their first Champions League match and face Arsenal 4-5 days later. After their second match, they have Manchester City on a Saturday, potentially giving them only three days between games. The Blues then have a slight reprieve, with the next Champions League night sandwiched between Crystal Palace and Watford. However, they then follow up the next two European matches with Manchester United and Liverpool.
Three of these opponents will also be competing in the Champions League, which will help balance the strain between the teams. Because of this, the travel will play a significant role in how sharp the clubs are.
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The best scenario for Chelsea would be a group with Porto, Anderlecht and Feyenoord. These opponents would be the best balance of quality and distance – not taxing the Blues too much on the pitch or in the air. Pot 4 of the draw has significantly weaker opponents – CSKA Moscow, APOEL and Qarabag – but would take a significant toll in airplanes, late nights and jet lag. Likewise, Pot 3 could match Chelsea against Olympiakos or Besiktas: great opponents at Stamford Bridge, but a demanding week for the away leg.
On the other side, Chelsea will be watching to see how fatigued their Premier League opponents will be heading into their fixture. Manchester City could come to Stamford Bridge after facing Shaktar Donetsk or Spartak Moscow midweek. Manchester United could play at Qarabag before their Chelsea fixture. And Liverpool could be away to Shaktar or Spartak before welcoming Chelsea to Anfield.
If Chelsea end up drawing a distant opponent, the one consolation is that they are the weaker clubs. If necessary, Antonio Conte could select a younger squad to face one of those clubs in order to preserve his best XI for the subsequent Premier League weekend. He did not tilt in that direction last season in the later rounds of the FA Cup, but a game at Wolverhampton and one at APOEL are very different beasts.
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The draw today could give Conte extra ammunition in his final week of transfer demands. Whether Chelsea draw difficult or distant opponents, Antonio Conte can point to squad depth or squad strength to convince the board to spend some of their £40 million in the transfer bank (plus the expected Diego Costa money).