Chelsea, Antonio Conte and the madman theory: Why fans should expect transfers

As the transfer deadline approaches, the Chelsea board must be wary of Antonio Conte. The madman theory explains why fans should expect more transfers.

A club as big as Chelsea is always only 90 minutes from crisis. Chelsea have already weathered its first and the season is only three weeks old. Headlines screamed of standoffs between Antonio Conte and the board and bookies slashed the odds of his imminent dismissal.

Then Chelsea went to Wembley and beat Tottenham with a lineup held together by duct tape and chewing gum. The win illustrated the danger of writing off Conte. Is the club’s hierarchy making the same mistake?

Probably not. The tension around the Italian’s contract renegotiations this summer surely banished any complacency. In this game of brinksmanship, the board swerved first and gave him a significant pay raise without an extension.

Conte’s position of strength came from last season’s results and the madman theory.

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The madman theory was named and pioneered by former US President, Richard Nixon, in the late 1960s. Nixon went out of his way to convince the Soviets and North Vietnamese that he was just crazy enough to use nuclear weapons. As the theory goes, it is best not to push a maniac too far in order to avoid the extinction of mankind. Nixon practiced it, but Conte perfected it. Admittedly, the stakes are somewhat lower for Chelsea’s head coach.

Conte’s resignation as manager of Juventus was the best career move he ever made. After the Italian won three straight scudetti in Turin, he abruptly walked away after one day of preseason training. He felt hamstrung by the board’s transfer policy and turned his back on the dynasty he created.

Conte showed, if ever there was any doubt, that he is not a man to be trifled with. If victory is the desired outcome, Conte is your man. Anything else, he communicated, will be met with short shrift.

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A narrative of tension with the board over transfers is natural following Chelsea’s less than stellar preparations for the current campaign. There are sharp intakes of breath because, well, Conte’s crazy enough to go, isn’t he?

His job (and personal obsession) is to win. To accomplish this goal he wants the best players available. Bruce Buck and the board are tasked with helping Conte achieve his goals while also looking after the club’s bottom line and planning for the future. The Italian is a talented but temperamental coach. His power move at Juventus ensures that his superiors will think long and hard about denying him the players he wants.

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With the transfer window closing this week, expect significant transfers. If none are forthcoming, expect an Italian madman.