Even if David Luiz and Gary Cahill could stay out of the book, Chelsea no longer need to rely on a single defensive trio as they did last year. Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen offer a variety of combinations, with Cesar Azpilicueta as the constant.
Chelsea’s back-line was the most steadfast part of a barely-changing starting XI last season. Perfectly-timed red cards by Gary Cahill and David Luiz have precluded Chelsea from approaching that level of stability. However, the suspensions created opportunities for Andreas Christensen and Antonio Rudiger to make their case for displacing the incumbents.
Cesar Azpilicueta has not faced any direct threats for his place in the lineup. Even if he had, no defender at Chelsea, the Premier League or maybe all of Europe could out-perform him as a right back or right centre-back.
Azpilicueta is the one guarantee in defence, the player around whom Antonio Conte builds the team-sheet. For the other two positions, four available players offer different possibilities in their partnerships.
Andreas Christensen + Antonio Rudiger
Andreas Christensen has left little room for doubt that he should start in the middle of the back-three. His calm awareness in the box precludes any possibility of a panicky turnover or lazy foul. His conservative tendencies as Chelsea go forward predispose him the be the last man back while the other centre-backs join the press.
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Antonio Rudiger complements Christensen. Whereas Christensen locks down his turf and becomes a focal point on defence, Rudiger directly shifts the pressure in response to the play. He can come across the pitch to overload the ball-carrier, with Christensen shifting back towards Rudiger’s assigned side. He is fast enough that he can push forward and still win a foot race back, or recover from one side to the other across the box.
Of the different combinations, this pair is the most statistically sound. Their combined blocks per game (1.94) and clearances per game (12.03) are higher than any other pair.
This duo is the future of Chelsea’s defence, but not for at least another season. Antonio Conte will not want two of his three defenders to be in their first year at Chelsea. He expects too much organization and tactical understanding from his defence. Cesar Azpilicueta is a strong leader and organizer, but he should not be the only one.
Andreas Christensen + Gary Cahill
Andreas Christensen, Gary Cahill and Cesar Azpilicueta is Chelsea’s most solid, thoroughly defensive back-line. Cahill lends the added experience and organization that Rudiger does not yet have, at the expense of Rudiger’s mobility. This is the defence that would best face Chelsea’s fellow title contenders.
This back-line would best support David Luiz as a defensive midfielder in a 3-1-4-2. Luiz would be free to go on adventures forward, as well as attempt the occasional 40-yard pass, with the security that these defenders provide.
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Not surprisingly, the Christensen-Cahill tandem has the highest combined aerial duel win-rate: 61%. Their main weakness would be in the tackle, where they combine for only .65 per game, the lowest pairing.
Gary Cahill + David Luiz
We’re getting the band back together here, although Antonio Conte by now surely hopes it does not come to this. Last year’s defence was a makeshift solution that contributed to an improbable title run. As Manchester City showed last weekend, this season is certainly not last season.
Cahill and Luiz do not lead in any of the combined statistics. The Premier League has this duo all figured out. They bring experience as individuals and as a battery, but should remain a last-ditch option.
David Luiz + Antonio Rudiger
This would be potentially the most interesting and dynamic pairing, which means the most nerve-wracking and liable to yield absurd scoring opportunities to the opposition. Both players are fast and mobile, and willing to move out of position to close down the opposition. Antonio Rudiger seems more disciplined and thoughtful in his movements than David Luiz, but that is a low bar.
Confining Rudiger to a narrowly-defined area negates some of his best talents. If Antonio Conte is going to set Rudiger loose, he will want someone more trust-worthy than David Luiz in the centre.
Whereas Cahill and Christensen would free Luiz to explore space in a 3-1-4-2, Luiz and Rudiger would almost require Christensen to play defensive midfield in that formation to give them the extra coverage. Cesar Azpilicueta would also have to play deep, ready to cover the centre and serve as last man back. That would take him out from his developing role as a hybrid back / midfielder / wing-backs, which has enabled his place as Alvaro Morata’s set-up man.
In turn, that would force the right wing-back to recover more quickly to bolster the right side as Azpilicueta covers the centre. Conte will not want to count on Victor Moses to pick up added defensive duties, so this defensive pairing may require Davide Zappacosta on the right flank.
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Luiz and Rudiger have the best combined tackles, with 2.78 per game. But neither that nor the added mobility is worth the defensive risk. Chelsea have enough options on defence that they can achieve balance and stability in a number of ways. This is the least Conte option of them all.
All stats via Squawka.