Is the Premier League title race over yet? Probably not but the walls are closing in on Chelsea’s route to the top.
Chelsea are not far off their place from last season, but the gap in quality feels markedly different for 2017/18’s title race. Manchester City is not just purring, they are roaring. Manchester United are keeping pace in the usual Jose Mourinho way. And the rest are in similar positions as Chelsea.
Chelsea won the title last year not by beating the top six more than anyone else, but by being virtually perfect against the rest of the table.
The title-winning margin last year was seven points over Tottenham in second. That included dropping points against Swansea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool (again), Burnley, Crystal Palace and Manchester United.
The first three all happened before New Year’s. Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Manchester United took their points in 2017, after the Blues were pretty strongly ahead. This year, the dropped points have come against Burnley, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Crystal Palace.
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Chelsea has dropped more points early this season, when last season many came late. That is a reason for concern, but not panic. Chelsea are not so far off the Manchester clubs to write them out of the race, but with every poor performance and every dropped point, the margin for error becomes slimmer and slimmer.
The City loss will hurt in the context of the title race. If the Blues drop more points before November 5, the big red line under the Manchester United match gets thicker. That fixture could be an early six pointer for both clubs.
But all is not lost. Manchester City was rampant at the start of last season before stumbling. And though they can score like mad, they still have some defensive issues. A tricky club like West Bromwich Albion or Burnley could sneak a point. And it is always hard to discount Jose Mourinho with a tactical masterclass against a top six club.
Speaking of Mourinho, Manchester United is slowly losing steam. They failed to take advantage of a poor Liverpool defense, but held firm against their strong offense. Three points in that match would have been massive, and in that context the draw is not ideal.
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The rest of the chase pack is more or less fighting to be the team “putting the pressure on”. It will be awhile before it is clear who is top of that pack, but it could be anyone from United to Watford.
The title race is not over, but the walls are closing for sure. Chelsea has not looked solid in a run of games yet, and Antonio Conte will be watching all the match footage that he can to try to find a solution. City is going to stumble eventually, and it is up to Chelsea to ensure they are in the prime location to pounce when that happens.
Chelsea must find their way in the next run of games. Watford will be tricky but beatable. Bournemouth are always up for a David vs. Goliath match, but are struggling this year. And then the big match against United.
Nine of nine points in that run could see Chelsea within touching distance of City. Seven of nine could see them in a similar spot as United in the chasing pack. Anything less will raise questions as to where Chelsea will close the gap.
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It is important to lay down markers now and put the losses in the past. Because there is still a chance, but the light at the end of the tunnel is dimming.