Chelsea opposition analysis vs. Qarabag: Scouting a second-ever meeting

The games start to come thick and fast for Chelsea, as they make the long midweek trip to Azerbaijan to take on Qarabag. With only one meeting between them – ever – and future meetings doubtful, preparing for this tie is a special challenge.

Despite the little-known opponent, Wednesday’s Champions League match is arguably Chelsea’s biggest of the season so far. A Blues win guarantees progression into the knockout stages. A win for Qarabag would keep their unlikely hopes of qualifying alive, whilst a draw would open the doors for Atletico Madrid, should they be able to overcome AS Roma in the group’s other tie.

Here’s what Chelsea can expect at the Baku National Stadium.

Qarabag’s recent form

Qarabag come into the game in brilliant domestic form. They are top of the league and have lost just once this season. They also come off the back of two surprise draws against Atletico Madrid, results that have benefited Chelsea greatly.

Must Read: Cesc Fabregas, Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata a forceful unit in win

The AFFA (Association of Football Federations of Azerbaijan) moved Qarabag’s latest game forward to Friday, meaning they will have an extra day to prepare over Chelsea. This appears to be the norm in Azerbaijain. Each of Qarabag’s four games before their Champions League ties have been moved forward to the Friday. Perhaps this is something the FA could take note of?

Recent head-to-head meetings

Chelsea have only taken on Qarabag once in their history, a 6-0 thrashing at Stamford Bridge in week 1 of this season’s Champions League, back in September. Which means 100% of the time these teams have met, Chelsea have won 6-0. Yay.

It was plain sailing for Chelsea that evening, with 5 different scorers plus an own goal leading to an emphatic victory. However, Qarabag’s two excellent draws with Atletico show that it will not be that easy this time around.

Strengths

It will come as a surprise to most Chelsea fans that Qarabag’s main strength is their defensive resolve. They have conceded just four goals in their 11 league games so far and, ignoring the Chelsea game, have conceded just three in their other three games against Roma and Atletico.

However, they really were atrocious at the back at Stamford Bridge, making numerous mistakes. They will need to be a lot more switched on if they are going to get anything out of this game.

Weaknesses

Going just by the reverse fixture, organisation at set pieces is a big weakness. Chelsea scored three goals from corners played short last time, so this could be a useful tactic. Another area of joy for Chelsea was winning the ball back quickly by putting pressure on Qarabag’s defenders and holding midfielders when they were on the ball. Normally Chelsea tend to sit off a bit more in away games, but it may make sense to take the game to them to try and force mistakes.

Likely XI

Chelsea’s line-up could be interesting. After such an impressive victory against West Brom, Antonio Conte must be tempted to play an unchanged side. That said, Chelsea have a huge game against Liverpool next Saturday, so he may choose to rotate a little.

Against Chelsea first time round, Qarabag played just the one holding midfielder in a reserved 4-1-4-1 formation. They tweaked that slightly for the recent games against Atletico, going with a 4-2-3-1. This gave them a more solid foundation and means they can get Michel playing in his favoured attacking midfield position. Expect more of the same, but without midfielder Pedro Henrique, who is suspended after being sent off last time out.

Qarabag predicted 4-2-3-1:

Šehić; Medvedev, Rzeźniczak, Yunuszadə, Agolli; Qarayev, Almeyda; Quintana, Michel, Guerrier; Ndlovu

Next: Chelsea's tactical formation steadily becoming a 3-5-2 in name only

Chelsea vs. Qarabag: Final Prediction

It surely won’t be as easy as last time, but an early goal here and Chelsea should be comfortable and can secure their place in the last 16. Qarabag 0 – 3 (Eden Hazard 11 + 82, Alvaro Morata 39).