Thibaut Courtois deserves ‘David de Gea wages’ from Chelsea

Thibaut Courtois’ contract demands are often described in reference to David de Gea’s wages. Courtois is on par with de Gea or Manuel Neuer, and Chelsea should pay him at that level because they cannot replace him without weakening the team.

Thibaut Courtois paints a mixed picture, which results in him being one of the more polarizing Chelsea players. On the one hand there is the Diego Costa-level of whinging and pining for Madrid, the not-so-coy hints at a transfer, the occasional dalliance with a teammate’s girl and his refusal to work with Christophe Lollichon. On the other, even in defeat he goes over to applaud the fans at the end of every game. More often than not, one of those fans goes home with his jersey.

Between the sticks, Courtois is a long-limbed man with razor sharp reflexes. He can cover the entire goal in a flash, and make himself big enough that a player coming in on net has nowhere to put the ball. However, his shot-stopping ability covers up a tendency to not be in control of his goal mouth, particularly on set plays or crosses. Courtois punches the ball more than his peers, betraying a lack of composure and allowing the opposition another opportunity to attack.

But then against Liverpool he demonstrated world-class skill and gamesmanship to charge out for a ball, stop it at the edge of the box and then pivot around the ball to ward off the onrushing Red. He may not have Manuel Neuer’s ball-handling skills or Petr Cech’s spatial dominance, but he can do more to squash attacks than simply repelling the ball.

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And that cuts to the heart of the Thibaut Courtois debate and his contract negotiations. Courtois may not be as deft as de Gea, as skillful as Neuer or as powerful as Cech. Courtois arguably under-performs his potential. He may not play for the shirt like Cech, Cesar Azpilicueta or Eden Hazard. He falls short of some visions of the archetypal (Chelsea) goalkeeper.

But he is the only goalkeeper in the world that can take Chelsea to their ambitions in the Premier League and Champions League. Courtois is the best keeper available to Chelsea, by virtue of the fact that they have him and no one remotely close to his level is on the market.

Despite his spats with Chelsea’s goalkeeping staff and his reputation for obstinacy, Courtois has improved significantly over the last four years. His distribution accuracy jumped from 57% in 2014/15 and 2015/16 to 72% in 2016/17 and 73% this season. For all the unfavourable comparisons to Manuel Neuer given Antonio Conte’s expectations for a ball-playing goalkeeper, Courtois adapted impressively. Last season he cut 10 yards off his average distribution length from the previous two campaigns. In each of the last three seasons Courtois’ average distribution length was closer to Neuer’s – the ultimate sweeper-keeper – than de Gea’s.

Another common criticism of Thibaut Courtois is that he does not have “world-class” statistics for save percentage or saves per goal. Those stats, though, do not accurately portray the goalkeeper’s ability relative to the defence in front of him.

Over the last four seasons, Chelsea conceded an average of 11 shots per league game. Manchester United conceded 10.2, and Bayern Munich 8.2. Courtois’ ratio of saves and saves per goal to shots conceded per game surpasses both de Gea’s and Neuer’s. Particularly compared to Neuer at Bayern, Courtois has much more to do to earn his domestic Golden Gloves and league titles given the defence and opposition in front of him.

The perfect is not the enemy of the good, and Thibaut Courtois is far better than merely good. His critics should accept the raw reality of supply-and-demand: Chelsea cannot do better than Thibaut Courtois.

Other players may offer isolated attributes better than Courtois, or may match someone’s mythical expectations for what a goalkeeper should be. But no player in the world will keep Chelsea alive in the Premier League and Champions League the way Thibaut Courtois did last weekend against Liverpool, last month against AS Roma and for the title-winning seasons of 2014/15 and 2016/17.

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Thibaut Courtois deserves ‘David de Gea’ wages. They may very well be the price of another few years’ worth of silverware.