Sizing up the Premier League table: Boxing Day and the 15-point rule

Chelsea have played nine matches since the last international break and the shape of the table has changed greatly. One week into the second half of the season, it is a good time to look around the Premier League and bust narratives while also making predictions.

A good rule of thumb is to look at all the teams within 15 points of a team’s current position after matchday 19. Those positions are the range that a team can finish in. That is not to say that a team cannot beat that range, but it would take something miraculous for a team to do so. In fact, it would take a massive effort to just get to the teams within 10 points.

But this helps to give a rough estimate of the best dreams and worst nightmares of the Premier League clubs before Christmas.

1. Manchester City: 55 points, 18-1-0, No Change, Possible Finish: 1st-2nd

Only Manchester United having a hot run and City sputtering could change the current trajectory of the title. City has been historically deadly as they have dispatched all but Ronald Koeman’s Everton.

They have won or ground out results as needed and there is no sign of that stopping soon. It will surely happen eventually, but the results they are getting are a testament to the players adapting Pep Guardiola’s style and Guardiola making small adjustments to cope with life in the Premier League.

2.  Manchester United: 43 Points, 13-4-3, No Change, Possible Finish: 1st-7th

The only hope of keeping the title from Manchester City belongs to their cross-town rivals. But while City can stay in second gear and take three points, United have struggled with their best in recent weeks as they have repeatedly limped over the line. They simply cannot afford to lose to City again this season, but they also must keep a blistering pace to close the gap. Jose Mourinho has the players and the checkbook to make it possible, but there is next to no room for error.

3. Chelsea: 42 Points, 13-3-4, +1 place, Possible Finish: 2nd-9th

It is time to give up on defending the title. Chelsea has been in good form for weeks but Manchester United has equaled it and Manchester City has surpassed it. The rough start to the season with the more recent blips has left Chelsea with a solid hold on top four, but with virtually no chance of retaining the title.

The club has not traditionally spent big in January but they need depth as the focus should shift to the cups and maintaining a top four spot.

4. Liverpool: 35 Points, 9-8-2, +1 place, Possible Finish: 2nd-12th

Just as the defensive issues seemed to be fixed, Jurgen Klopp created new issues by rotating his squad heavily for big games. From afar, it makes sense. Injuries ravaged the squad at about this time last year, and Klopp’s rotations may pay off down the line.

But right now it is causing the club to spin its wheels. For every great goal they score they seem to concede. They cannot break the cycle. Reinforcements in January could make them dangerous, but it may be too late to change their fortunes this year.