Chelsea: Arsenal will end Thibaut Courtois’ easy run of ‘negative’ opponents

Chelsea’s fixture at Arsenal will show how hard Thibaut Courtois has been working at the training ground. The Gunners are sure to test him in ways he has not seen since November.

Thibaut Courtois has been a bit of bystander throughout Chelsea’s festive period. Despite being the first name on the team sheet and one of only two players to appear in every Premier League game this season, he has had little involvement in the recent run. In Chelsea’s last four games, Courtois only had to save four – total, combined,  four – shots on target.

Chelsea’s streak of playing bottom-half opponents plus bottom-half mentality Everton enabled the Blues to maintain possession, a high defensive line and complete control of the midfield throughout December. The last game when Chelsea conceded more than 10 shots was eight match-days ago: November 25 against Liverpool. That fixture was also the last time Courtois faced more than two shots on target (3) and took more than 40 touches in the game.

Not only has Courtois not faced many shots, he has also not faced dangerous shots. In 10 Premier League matches since the November international break only two teams have had an expected goals against Chelsea greater than 0.7. West Bromwich Albion, the first match after the break, had an xG of 1.0 and two shots on target in the 4-0 Blues’ victory. The next match was against Liverpool, who had a 1.1 xG in a 1-1 draw.

Since then, Newcastle and Southampton created the best opportunities against Chelsea for xG’s of 0.7. Swansea – one of the two teams not to muster a shot on target against Courtois in that span – had an incredible 0.05 xG.

Arsenal will force Courtois to work much harder to earn his 12th clean sheet and share the Premier League lead with David de Gea. When these two sides met in September’s scoreless draw, Arsenal has two shots on target and 1.4 xG. In the same span in which Courtois stood between the pipes listening to his favourite podcasts while Chelsea’s defenders and midfielders took care of business up the pitch, Arsenal had four matches with an xG over 2.0.

The Blues have allowed the second-fewest goals in the Premier League this season. N’Golo Kante and the back-line take much of the credit for that, given how few opportunities they allow the opposition to test Thibaut Courtois. Arsenal, though, have Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez playing their hearts out for a January transfer. Ozil is doubtful for the game with a slight knee injury, but Arsenal will still move the ball through Chelsea’s midfield and push back the defence more effectively than any recent opponent.

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Courtois can expect much more activity than he has had in recent weeks. With his contract hanging over the club, his evening at the Emirates will be an excellent opportunity to remind Chelsea why they should give him what he wants and keep him at Stamford Bridge.