Forget the ability to kill games off. Chelsea’s failure to start games quickly is costing them this season.
Antonio Conte’s favoured game plan is built upon scoring the first goal, then sitting deep and catching the opposition on the counter. The second part of the plan depends wholly on the first, and Chelsea’s inability to score early goals had stripped them of their counter-attacking prowess.
Last season the Blues scored the first goal in 30 of their 38 Premier League games (79%). This campaign, Chelsea have gone behind in seven of the 22 games, scoring first on just 13 occasions (59%).
This drop in striking first means Chelsea have not been able to play Antonio Conte’s preferred style or strategy. Chelsea have yet to score a counter-attacking goal this season, after recording a league-best seven goals on the counter last season.
The Blues are starting games much slower this time around. They have scored four times in the first 15 minutes of games, less than 10% of their 41 goals so far. In comparison, this figure was just under 15% in the 2016/17 season. The contrast would have been even starker if not for the two early goals against a weakened Stoke team in December.
At the other end of the 90, Chelsea scored almost a quarter of their 2016/17 goals in the last 15 minutes of games. Normally these came when the opposition was chasing the game and left more space for Chelsea to exploit. As expected by the lack of counter-attacking strikes this season, the number of goals in the last 15 minutes of the game has dropped in this campaign.
The distribution of goals at different stages of matches last season highlight how dangerous Chelsea were throughout the game. This time around they are much more predictable, scoring most of their goals between the 15th – 30th minute and in the last quarter of an hour of the game. Opponents can focus on getting past the first stage of the game and then concentrate on buckling down for an onslaught later on in the match.
There is a growing sense some teams have worked out how to defend against this Antonio Conte’s side. Simply sit extremely deep and frustrate them, and – more often than not – the Blues run out of ideas. Both Everton and West Ham have shown the way in recent weeks. In the majority of games Chelsea have to be wary of the counter-attack, rather than dishing out their own.
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One obvious explanation for the slower start would be the increase in games. Schedule congestion causes fatigue, which saps the tenacity and focus early in games. With a FA Cup replay, League Cup semi-final, Champions League knockout games and important Premier League games in the coming weeks, Chelsea needs to find the energy to start games quickly again.