ABC’s of Chelsea’s rumours: Edin Dzeko sums up Anyone But Carroll

Once Chelsea fans accept the increasingly real prospect of the Blues signing Andy Carroll on a permanent deal, any transfer rumour seems a blissful alternative. If Chelsea want a late-career striker, Edin Dzeko is far preferable, however remote the possibility.

No one seems more excited by the prospect of Chelsea writing an Abramovich-sized check for Andy Carroll than the West Ham fanbase. Chelsea fans are still angrily accepting the Blues will not sign Alexis Sanchez in part because of his anticipated low resale value in three years. Meanwhile, Hammers fans cannot believe their luck upon learning Andy Carroll does, in fact, have a resale value and Chelsea are willing to inflate it.

If Chelsea truly are close to signing Andy Carroll, any transfer rumour becomes plausible and preferable. The latest batch of baseless rumours link Edin Dzeko to a return to the Premier League at Stamford Bridge. Dzeko would be an improvement over Carroll on nearly every dimension, even if the deal is extremely unlikely.

The three main objections to Andy Carroll are his age, his injury history and his output. Not exactly bagatelles. Dzeko is two years older than Carroll, but still looks a spring chicken in comparison.

Because of Carroll’s injury history, since 2006 he has had only three seasons with over 1500 league playing minutes, most recently in 2012/13. In the same span, Dzeko played over 1500 minutes in all but three seasons. Each of Dzeko’s seasons included a European campaign, as well. Carroll has six total Europa League appearances in that decade.

Edin Dzeko had 130 Premier League appearances over five seasons at Manchester City. In that span he scored 50 goals, one every 2.6 games. Over 13 seasons, Carroll has 195 Premier League appearances and 52 goals: one every 3.75 games.

Dzeko is AS Roma’s leading scorer with nine goals this season, and has more minutes than any other outfield player. He is well off his pace of 29 goals last season, but Roma are much less potent on offence this season having lost Mohamed Salah. After finishing second last season, Roma are currently in fifth, part of a chase pack fighting for third with second place almost out of sight.

And with Liverpool looking to poach goalkeeper Allison Becker, Roma cannot afford to lose Dzeko. The Bosnian international could be the difference between qualifying for the Champions League and missing out on Europe altogether next season.

This latter factor may weigh on Dzeko’s mind. He may want to guarantee he finishes his career with his streak of European competitions intact. With Lazio and Napoli challenging the usual order of things in Serie A, Chelsea could be a more stable haven.

However, Dzeko is under contract at Roma until 2020, and will be 34 at its conclusion. He has had the good fortune of long stays at each of his clubs: over 115 appearances for each of AS Roma, Manchester City and Wolfsburg. He will not want to finish his career as a journeyman, as Chelsea would likely demand via a series of one-year contracts.

Chelsea scarcely need a reminder of how sparse their striker situation is. Alvaro Morata is now two yellow cards away from a two-game suspension. His well-deserved reputation for going to ground easily (to put it generously) will only need to find one more referee with an itchy trigger finger. He could be serving that suspension within a matter of weeks.

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Any transfer activity seems better than none, even for a club with a hit-or-miss history of late-window buys. That Edin Dzeko seems such a tantalizing, if impossible, option is just the latest indictment of Chelsea’s centre-forward situation and accumulation of transfer mismanagement.

Data viz by Dan Clark.